What was the target?
Taking into account all the unknowns
As it seems by now not only did Israeli jets entered Syrian airspace last week, they did probably carry out an air strike.
The question is what was the target? Weapons meant for Hezbollah in Lebanon? Or as Ha’aretz suggested a nuclear facility that Syria is building with the help of North-Korea.
According to Stratfor this is unlikely: 'Despite its status in U.S. eyes as a second-tier "Axis of Evil" state, Syria does not have a nuclear program that comes close to North Korea's or even Iran's program. It continues to focus on civilian research, particularly the production of radioisotopes for medical purposes. Though connections to Iranian and North Korean know-how could accelerate the Syrian program, Syria lacks the finances and resources to commit to an advanced nuclear program -- not to mention the standoff distance needed to conceal anything of that scale from the Mossad.
Thus, whether the incursion was a photo reconnaissance, offensive strike or some other sort of mission, reports of the nuclear angle fail to convince. The rudimentary state of Syria's nuclear program (even taking into account all the unknowns) means Damascus has not crossed the sort of redline that would warrant the attention of what, by Syrian reports, appears to have been at least four Israeli aircraft.’
One of the biggest mysteries to me is the Syrian silence about this incident.
I was meant to travel in September to Israel to take part in an army exercise in order to report about it for a Dutch newspaper.
At the last moment the IDF postponed my visit to November.
Given what appears a strike on Syria and the fact that recently a high-ranking Hamas-member was kidnapped in Gaza as a bargain tool for Mr. Shalit - an Israeli corporal who was kidnapped by Hamas in the summer of 2006 – one wonders if there’s a relation between the postponement of my visit to the IDF and these two events. Probably not, but also because of vanity one is tempted to think otherwise.
Syrian silence
Well, maybe they are not so keen to admit they cannot stop those damned IDF planes. Nothing to be proud of in a violent neighbourhood.I think IDF was testing the new anti aircraft weapon system, mentioned earlier.
arnon
You have always been close to miracles, haven't you?Going native with the military
Hi Arnon,Interesting to learn that you were also planning to get `under the skin' of the Israelian forces. I in general very much like and recognize your continuous search into humankinds tendencies to violence and suffering. Ever since my first launch into the realities of war and violence some six years ago, when I tried to protect courageous human rights activists in a conflict area , carrying my international passport as only weapon (peace brigades international, still a great organisation), these questions have at least intrigued me. After one and a half year exposure to a police state and enough violent stories to boast about, I could not stand the colour of army-green any more. So, to test myself, I applied with the Dutch army to become a humanist councelor and - after a long selection procedure - got accepted. I pulled back, then, because the Iraq invasion was in the air and I still had some principles, but the whole process was worthwhile in challenging my beliefs about myself and the army.. Nowadays working for a development organisation, I am talking to the army on a weekly base: it's called civil military relations. It's mostly to try and channel our - that is the humanitarian worker and the soldier - love and hate relation in Afghanistan. I loved your articles about your visit to Task Force Uruzgan., by the way!
Anyway, I am a bit off track here, but I guess I was just looking for an excuse to write to you once, if this is really you ;-). And I happen to be in New York coming Sunday and Monday, and then on to DC for some more civil military talk. But would not mind some civil-engaged novelist talk as well. About all these experiences and this strange addiction of humanitarian workers like me to (fight against? cherish?) suffering and injustice. Any chance?
Jan Thys
You might be right.Accoding to Stratfor today:
"The details surrounding the incident remain murky, but if the Israeli air force (IAF) were indeed conducting a mission deep inside Syria, the warplanes were likely on a reconnaissance mission. Syrian reports of the warplanes dropping "ammunition" probably were the Israeli aircraft dropping external fuel tanks or extraneous ordnance while trying to evade ground fire or missiles. Though Syrian media are issuing reports that locals heard "five or more" warplanes in the area, Israeli reconnaissance flights would typically involve a pair of warplanes, and nothing indicates Syria's air force scrambled jets.'
No more talk about an attack.
