2008/01/29 New York
Absorbing Taiwan
2016
The NYT Magazine published this Sunday an article by Parah Khanna bout the diminishing influence of the US.
Probably the most interesting part of the article was this prediction:
“It is 2016, and the Hillary Clinton or John McCain or Barack Obama administration is nearing the end of its second term. America has pulled out of Iraq but has about 20,000 troops in the independent state of Kurdistan, as well as warships anchored at Bahrain and an Air Force presence in Qatar. Afghanistan is stable; Iran is nuclear. China has absorbed Taiwan and is steadily increasing its naval presence around the Pacific Rim and, from the Pakistani port of Gwadar, on the Arabian Sea. The European Union has expanded to well over 30 members and has secure oil and gas flows from North Africa, Russia and the Caspian Sea, as well as substantial nuclear energy. America’s standing in the world remains in steady decline.”
Independent state of Kurdistan in 2016? My bet is no.
Air Force presence in Qatar in 2016? Why not.
Afghanistan is stable by 2016? No, not anymore than it is now.
EU over thirty members? Meaning what? Turkey member of the EU? Or the independent state of Flanders member of the EU? Kosovo member of the EU?
Iran is nuclear? Maybe. But then as in: Pakistan is nuclear.
And China absorbing Taiwan is a detail. I think we all expect China to absorb a little bit more than Taiwan by 2016.
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31 comments 
And what about Congo?
Supposedly Napoleon said: "China is a sleeping giant. But when she awakes the world will tremble."
Where are the days we waved the Red Book of Mao in front of some bewildered teachers.
It was my way of revenge on life - nothing less, nothing more - at least for a year or two.
It was my way of revenge on life - nothing less, nothing more - at least for a year or two.
It sounds a bit like, "All my friends are gone". It is what Bush called down upon the US when he said that whoever was not with them would be against them. The isolation may give the US time for some introspection now that playtime is almost over--and China is finally waking up.
Be that as it may, it is funny how these kinds of observations always reminisce the silly sound of Mr. GBJ Hilterman, if anyone remembers. Discussing world politics means perceiving the world as an allegory; what exactly is referenced when you say "the US", or "China"? It's hardly possible to make any sense, but old GBJ never had any qualms about that.
Be that as it may, it is funny how these kinds of observations always reminisce the silly sound of Mr. GBJ Hilterman, if anyone remembers. Discussing world politics means perceiving the world as an allegory; what exactly is referenced when you say "the US", or "China"? It's hardly possible to make any sense, but old GBJ never had any qualms about that.
With the pshychological blow Hillary received from the Kennedy clan supporting Barack Obama's candidacy, I think it's less and less probable that in 2016 we will talk of the nearby end of the Hillary Clinton administration. Or is the Kennedy family less influantial then I imagined them to be?
@Arnon
Let me quote yourself (Publishers Weekly 15-1-08): "I’m always happy with strong reactions, either positive or negative. I think the worst reaction you can get as an author is to have the critic say, “Oh, well, that’s nice.” When people are outraged, to a certain limit, it can make me happy; at least it’s a real reaction. It’s better than “nice.”Since you don't like my posts , since you don't appreciate them, since you think they are not so nice ( as allways nothing but a personal oppinion)...yes: I will be back! Just be a good sport, Arnon: put those optional websites back on, will you?
Victor
I think, if you dont mind me saying, there is a difference between a well formulated, well argumented critical reaction in a newsaper or magazine and someone telling mr. Grunberg to go 'fuck a dog or a dildo' on his own blog.Your reactions aren't strong. In fact, you don't react at all. You're only here to promote your own book and to show us what a great intellectual you are. I'm sorry to break this to you, but you fail miserably at that.
The only strong reaction against A.G. we can find on the website of another writer. The only positive reaction you got there was from a guy called Wouter Krijbolder, who seems to be quite impressed by you and your book, and whose name bares a striking similarity with yours, which I believe is no coincidence, or is it?
Show some dignity, for your own sake.
The only strong reaction against A.G. we can find on the website of another writer. The only positive reaction you got there was from a guy called Wouter Krijbolder, who seems to be quite impressed by you and your book, and whose name bares a striking similarity with yours, which I believe is no coincidence, or is it?
Show some dignity, for your own sake.
This all bears some resemblance with those Stephen King stories, where characters of a writer come to life to haunt the writer.. ; - )
Tsjitse
The thing is, on blogs, discussions will always be hijacked, a reason why most newspapers tend to censor their blogs, because most (read 99 percent) of the reactions are quite stupid. But censorship sucks, hence the dilemma.@Victor - you're angry because Arnon 'hasn't done a damn thing for you'. But why should he be obliged to do something for you? What have you done for him? You haven't even read any of his work, then why do you expect him to read yours let alone ask some agent to read it?
Besides, you got yourself some publicity through his site, so he has done something for you. Perhaps it's time to let go of your first baby, who knows it may some day learn to fly. And if not, well then just let it sit comfortably under the protection of your own wings and appreciate it for what it is. Work on something new. That's what writers do isn't it? Writers write.
Besides, you got yourself some publicity through his site, so he has done something for you. Perhaps it's time to let go of your first baby, who knows it may some day learn to fly. And if not, well then just let it sit comfortably under the protection of your own wings and appreciate it for what it is. Work on something new. That's what writers do isn't it? Writers write.
Love is a bitch, literature is a whore
You all seem to agree to disagree with me. What if I promote my book, what if I counterattack our dearest Arnon. Sometimes one has to take unorthodox methods to make a point, to get some attention. But if I am not mistaken your God has done that a lot.My Statcounter reached an all time high (still rather low, allready to high to the likings of Arnon) .Let me now quote an untranslated part of your beloved genius:
‘Vind je mijn sperma vies?’
‘ Je sperma is nog het minste. Ik heb het over je pik die smaakt naar oude pis en tonijnsalade die te lang in de zon heeft gelegen.´
Funny, sure. Hilarious, hilarious but , well, rather disgusting. So why do you all love reading Arnon but seem totally biased towards mine. Believe me, this is on a no need to know basis.
Sheers!
As most of us have been polite to you up to now, let me be straight. Why do I personally ike Arnon's work better than yours? Firts of all the comparison is obviously completely idiotic, I mean someone who has just started taking piano lessons can hardly claim to be as good as Mozart? Secondly, I've read some of your pieces on your website and none of it makes any sense whatsoever to me. I have no clue what you're saying, what character to follow (is there a character?), what the storyline is, the through line, the theme. It seems like a collage of your quotes you yourself ind highly interesting. But I don't see a story. A plain and simple story. With a beginning, a middle and an end. It may look easy, but it's the hardest thing to do. By the looks of it, you haven't quite mastered the basics. I challenge you to prove me wrong, and then you have my blessing to experiment in form and style as much as you want. How about writing a 2000 word story? Tell me when you're done and I'll send you my email address
In the meantime, buy the book 'STORY' by Robert McKee, I highly recommend it to you.
In the meantime, buy the book 'STORY' by Robert McKee, I highly recommend it to you.
ps Victor, and while you're at it, also buy yourself a dictionary will you?
Victor
You better not get me started.Hurray, Victor is getting a well deserved virtual spanking!
Please remember Victor, the old adagio that any publicity, positive or negative, is good publicity is simply not true. And at the moment, your whining is no publicity at all. We all seem to have decided not to read any of your work, so take your efforts elsewhere.
This blog is not maintained because we have to; we hope to have an interesting experience. Lunatics as Victor make us wonder if we need to use some form of censorship. We hope not to, but we will do anything to keep this site attractive for all of us. We do not fear a good discussion or a good performed and formulated unreasonable attack. We wouldn't even mind to help anyone promote their work, as long as they contribute something interesting. The brainless incoherent mumbling of a self-proclaimed 'genius' on the other hand bores us to death. So Victor, please take some writing lessons and live in France for a while to learn how to be charming before submitting new comments.
Please remember Victor, the old adagio that any publicity, positive or negative, is good publicity is simply not true. And at the moment, your whining is no publicity at all. We all seem to have decided not to read any of your work, so take your efforts elsewhere.
This blog is not maintained because we have to; we hope to have an interesting experience. Lunatics as Victor make us wonder if we need to use some form of censorship. We hope not to, but we will do anything to keep this site attractive for all of us. We do not fear a good discussion or a good performed and formulated unreasonable attack. We wouldn't even mind to help anyone promote their work, as long as they contribute something interesting. The brainless incoherent mumbling of a self-proclaimed 'genius' on the other hand bores us to death. So Victor, please take some writing lessons and live in France for a while to learn how to be charming before submitting new comments.
Joep
Joep, I understand the dilemma, but I don't see how your reaction follows from my post. I see now that it may not have been clear that my comment was directed at Victor who, on the AFTh site, reacts to his own messages under a different name, to tell himself how much he admires himself.@Tjitse:
I was just argumenting in general, that its hard to stop people like VC.
@ Victor:
Why do you take a quote from 'Fantoompijn' totally out of its context? That doesnt do any good to the total of what its about. Its even silly you brought that up. When Mehlman says something to his wife, or vice versa, its not about it being disgusting, its about how people can interact, about the stupid silly things people can throw to each other, about the condition of some men who have penises that smell like tuna salad.
Please stop comparing yourself to AG. This is not about idolatry, but about a good writer and an annoying commenter.
I was just argumenting in general, that its hard to stop people like VC.
@ Victor:
Why do you take a quote from 'Fantoompijn' totally out of its context? That doesnt do any good to the total of what its about. Its even silly you brought that up. When Mehlman says something to his wife, or vice versa, its not about it being disgusting, its about how people can interact, about the stupid silly things people can throw to each other, about the condition of some men who have penises that smell like tuna salad.
Please stop comparing yourself to AG. This is not about idolatry, but about a good writer and an annoying commenter.
On the other hand, doesnt it have something terribly sad to witness this? Here we have this young Dutch writer, very succesfull and productive- that is undisputed, as AG, and an amateur writer, VC, by the age of 130, with a single novel self-published by 'My own little Bruna Book' or something, yearning for acknowlegement. This is some deep-felt frustration we are dealing with here. Its even inspiring, i think. Maybe we are all Victor Crebolders, craving for love and a boost to our self-esteem. But when reality comes into play, there is no escape. I suggest Crebolder to read some of the essays in 'The consolation of slapstick', especially the one in which AG writes about how we are all Gods silly joke.
Joep
If I remember correctly, that book contains an essay that recommends the beginning writer to read the complete Guy de Maupassant oeuvre. That will teach him, for sure. At any rate, it will keep him away from this site, for a good while.Rutger
I used to listen to Mr. Hilterman on Sunday morning -- a long time ago. His voice sounded very convincing.Monica
Your qustion regarding the translation of the word "acmé" has been answered. Please go to Sunday's entry.@Joep, yes, very true. I can well relate to Victor, more than you could imagine. Enough said about Victor, as if I'm to judge him well, he's sitting back enjoying the fact we're talking about him (am I right Victor?). The disturbing thing about all this, is that men who claim their work is a masterpice and do so consistently, are eventually believed. Not all the time, but often enough. Perhaps Victor could teach me some lessons of his own. Lesson 1 being: believe in yourself.
@ Noa
You can also learn from the errors Victor makes.This lesson would be: talk to the rigt persons at the right moment and use the best way to contact them.
Self-confidence
This excess of self-confidence makes me think of the greatest Flemish singer ever, also called The Voice Of Europe, mister Eddy Wally (of course he cannot sing neither, although sometime he is indeed really funny).@Lila, you totally misunderstood me.
@ Noa
Don't compare yourself with Victor. While Victor's greatest talent to me is posing as the neglected genius, you are much more authentic. And what matters to me the most is that you don't sound like a delirious lunatic.@Noa
Yes, please do not compare yourself with Eddy Wally.
Yes, please do not compare yourself with Eddy Wally.
Jan and Mieke, you're saying sweet things. I didn't compare myself to him but I said I could relate to his feelings. Joep pointed out there's a certain universality there.
On a different note- I feel my addiction is returning so it's time for me to go back to rehab and stop commenting for a while (next time: help me out here guys, the moment you see a comment of mine, tell me to go and do something useful). My god this site is as powerful as a drug and almost as debilitating.
On a different note- I feel my addiction is returning so it's time for me to go back to rehab and stop commenting for a while (next time: help me out here guys, the moment you see a comment of mine, tell me to go and do something useful). My god this site is as powerful as a drug and almost as debilitating.
@Noa,
Yes me too, I can relate to some of his feelings – I am human too – but not to his manners (although sometimes I am a real bastard too. Sometimes. Uh?)
See you back soon.
Yes me too, I can relate to some of his feelings – I am human too – but not to his manners (although sometimes I am a real bastard too. Sometimes. Uh?)
See you back soon.
@Noa:
Believing in yourself? I think if you want to achieve something you should be very harsh to yourself. Its to easy to think your a genius and that its all great. On the other hand: thinking youre a complete failure doesnt do that much good either. I can relate to that. If you are insecure about wether something is good or not, you need certain very critical people. Not friends, they will always say your work is great.
After that, it takes guts to think your shit is good, the risc is total humiliation.
(I think, but what the hell do i know)
Believing in yourself? I think if you want to achieve something you should be very harsh to yourself. Its to easy to think your a genius and that its all great. On the other hand: thinking youre a complete failure doesnt do that much good either. I can relate to that. If you are insecure about wether something is good or not, you need certain very critical people. Not friends, they will always say your work is great.
After that, it takes guts to think your shit is good, the risc is total humiliation.
(I think, but what the hell do i know)
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