On braggadocio – Gideon Levy in Haaretz:

‘It was Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who said Israel could survive with a few less squadrons. The remark contains an important truth, even if we can no longer believe a word that comes out of his mouth. The experience of the past decades, since the pilots’ last air battle, and the security situation raise the question whether the Israel Defense Forces in general, and the Israel Air Force in particular, are not too large, powerful and bloated.’

(…)

‘A reduction of forces – fewer pilots and fewer soldiers to maintain the occupation and protect the violent settlers – could do some good. Perhaps not only the young people who refuse to serve will think twice, perhaps the IDF itself will think twice before each needless airstrike or even-more-needless arrest raid.
Excess power leads to overuse. The finest defense developments require practice, and the surplus soldiers must be kept busy in order to keep them alert and justify their conscription. If several squadrons are grounded because of their pilots’ refusal to serve, perhaps the air force will cut back on its secret, pointless airstrikes in Syria and other mysterious locations. No one knows their purpose, their efficacy and when we will pay their price. Nor does anyone ask.
With the exception of them and the grandiose preparations for the mother of all air attacks on Iran, that will never be carried out, it appears the air force has little to do, apart from periodically bombing the helpless Gaza Strip or the Jenin refugee camp. If there aren’t enough pilots to conduct these missions, not only will Israel’s security not be harmed, it may even benefit. Those bombings never prevented violent resistance to the occupation: They only spurred it, while committing war crimes and creating human tragedies. It would be better, therefore, for the pilots to rest in their homes for a while – until the next war, which at the moment seems distant.’

(…)

‘Excess power has always been one of Israel’s problems. Excess power has led it to arrogance, braggadocio and unnecessary wars and prevented it from recognizing the limits of its power and pursuing alternatives. Perhaps inadvertently Israel will do the right thing and we’ll now have a smaller, smarter army, which may even be a little more moral.’

Read the article here.

A smaller, smarter army?

I don’t think so.

It is very well possible that the resistance against Netanyahu, his religious and fascist allies, will peter out.

The refuseniks will remain a small minority, some of them will go back to the army after a while.

Sure, Israel is becoming more and more a failed state, but a failed state with nuclear weapons can survive for quite a while.

Just look at Pakistan.

Then there are the demographic developments. The haredim and the religious Zionists love big families, the secular Israelis are moving slowly in the direction of European birth rates. Slowly.

That might in the end lead to a smaller Israeli army, if enough youngsters believe that Thora study is preferable to becoming a soldier in the IDF, the Israeli army will eventually become smaller, unless it’s willing to hire some fighters from let’s say the Wagner group.