On war games – Harel in Haaretz:

‘The Biden administration's goal is clear: maintain quiet on the Iranian front while freezing the nuclear project until after the U.S. presidential election in November 2024. The administration also continues to work vigorously – despite its reservations about Benjamin Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – to achieve a breakthrough in Israeli-Saudi relations.’

(…)

‘But the current calm in the Iranian arena might be misleading. According to a war game conducted last week by the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, if Iran enriches uranium to 90 percent, this could soon be followed by a clash with the United States and Israel, even a regional war. Former top political and military leaders from Israel, the United States and a number of European countries took part in the simulation.’

(…)

‘In the game, in talks between Israel and the United States after the uranium enrichment, the Americans backed a direct Israeli operation in Iran. Israel then took action and caused massive destruction at two nuclear sites.
At this stage, various countries tried to cool things down. But the Iranians reacted to an additional Israeli attack with rocket fire by Hezbollah and by Shi'ite militias in Iraq and Syria. Israel then attacked Hezbollah weapons-production sites in Lebanon.
Washington issued an ultimatum to Iran to cease all belligerent actions within 24 hours, but Tehran continued its missile attacks against Israel and American targets in the region.’

(…)

‘Additional conclusions: at the moment of truth, Saudi Arabia toes the U.S.-Israeli line though it takes no action of its own. Europe remains focused almost entirely on the Ukraine war and barely engages in the Middle East. And even though everybody talks about operations below the threshold of war, from assassinations to drone attacks, none of this matters once the confrontation begins. What’s decisive is heightened military force.’

(…)

‘The game ended with the entire region in flames and Israel paying a steep price: unprecedented strikes on the home front.’

Read the article here.

This war game is not reality yet, but the scenario outlined here seems realistic.

Only the war game stops too soon.

What comes after the entire region up in flames? What about the refugees? What about oil prices? Did Iran get the bomb? If not: how many more years before Iran finally got the bomb?

Based on this scenario, one could say: let Iran have the bomb. The hope that the Iranian people will dispose of the Ayatollahs after all is minimal.