Arnon Grunberg

Factions

Custodian

On common and not so common fronts – Zvi Bar’el in Haaretz:

‘Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sissi has been particularly busy the past few weeks. More than the Israeli politicians calling for an operation to crush the “terror infrastructure” and/or topple the Palestinian Authority, Sissi understands what a major Israeli military operation in the West Bank could lead to.
He also understands that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ biological clock is ticking, and he's aware of the bitter infighting in Abbas' Fatah party over his successor. Sissi fears the consequences for Egypt of a West Bank war, which could spill over into Gaza and undo Egypt’s main effort in the Palestinian arena: fostering unity among the Palestinian factions with an eye on a long-term reconciliation between Israel and the Palestinians.’ (…)
‘For example, Saudi Arabia’s decision to appoint its consul general in Jordan as its consul general in the West Bank and Jerusalem caused an uproar not only in Israel, which still doesn't understand the reasoning, but in Amman, Cairo and Ramallah. Jordan, which fears it will be dropped as custodian of Muslim holy sites on the Temple Mount – status stipulated in its 1994 peace deal with Israel – believes the Saudis are trying to create facts on the ground as they exploit the Israelis’ longing for normalization.’

(…)

‘This assessment should be greeted with skepticism. Despite Hezbollah's encouragement and assistance to some Palestinian groups, it shuns fighting with Israel for the “Palestinian cause.” This would risk its status as Lebanon's protector.

For example, in April, after Israel attacked Hamas in south Lebanon following the launch of dozens of rockets from there into Israel, Hezbollah not only didn't accept responsibility, it didn't get involved.
This week, Hezbollah got another reason to avoid risking a violent confrontation. On Thursday, drilling began in Lebanon’s territorial waters for natural gas. The gas could yield the country the energy and money it needs to climb out of its severe economic crisis.
Hezbollah, which called Lebanon's maritime border agreement with Israel a historic achievement, doesn't want to ruin this accomplishment for the sake of the Palestinian “resistance” in Lebanon. It’s not overly enthused by the “common front” idea of Hamas and Islamic Jihad: a conflict where Gaza, the West Bank and Hezbollah fight side by side.
As threatening as it sounds, such a foray would be hard to implement. Hezbollah's interests don't always mesh with those of the Palestinian organizations. For example, about three weeks ago a deadly clash took place in the Palestinian refugee camp Ein el-Hilweh in southern Lebanon between Fatah and an Islamic militant group, al-Shabaab al-Muslim.
Four Fatah fighters, including one of the camp’s senior commanders, were killed, with the number rising to 11 within two days. The heads of Hamas, including Haniyeh and his deputy Saleh al-Arouri, Palestinian intelligence chief Majed Faraj and senior Palestinian officials in Lebanon appealed to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and the Lebanese government to help curb the clashes and ease tensions in the camp.
Such conflicts are nothing new in the camps, where factions vie for control. The Lebanese army restricts its presence to the camps’ entrances, and members of the Palestinian groups are allowed to carry weapons inside.
Every armed conflict in the camps rekindles calls for the disarmament of Palestinian groups. Hezbollah, which is fighting calls by its opponents to disarm, touts itself as the country’s only true defender, and no one in Lebanon could force it to disarm.
Hezbollah isn't necessarily happy that Palestinian militants carry weapons in the camps and use them against Israel without coordinating with Hezbollah – and at risk of harming the Shi'ite group’s own interests. Hence, despite its ostensible support for the “common front,” Hezbollah makes sure it’s the one that makes the rules.’

Read the article here.

Despite all the rumors that Hezbollah (and Iran) might want to take advantage of the disarray in Israel, it’s very well possible that Hezbollah’s interest for the moment is: no war.
Clearly this is also Egypt’s interest and it’s doubtful whether Hamas interested in war, even though there are conflicting statements about this issue reaching. This all might change quickly of course and conflicting statements are part of any strategy.

What MBS i.e. Saudi-Arabis strives for regarding ‘peace’ with Israel is clear, and pointed out by Tibon and Harel a couple of days ago, more and better access to American weapons, and ‘ civilian nuclear project.’ Forget the civilian part of it. Saudi-Arabia wants the bomb.
Everybody paying attention should have known that the moment Iran will have the bomb Saudi-Arabia will follow quickly.
The bomb, as Martin can Creveld said, has done a lot for peace. We are going to see how long this belief can be sustained.

All the major religions and the off shoots of these religions want to have their own bomb.

Sooner or later, small sects will need to bomb in order to feel ‘safe’. And then the bomb as great protector of peace will be a failure, I’m afraid.

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