On Russia - Anton Troianovski in NYT:

‘President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has long cast himself as a friend of Israel and the Jewish people.
He helped establish visa-free travel between Russia and Israel in 2008, presided over the construction of a sprawling Moscow Jewish Museum in 2012 and, side by side with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem in 2020, unveiled a memorial to the victims of Nazi Germany’s siege of Leningrad.
But amid the worst attack on Israel in 50 years, the high regard that Mr. Putin has shown for Israel in the past appears remarkably absent. More than three days after the start of the incursion by Hamas, there has been no message of condolence from the Kremlin, even though Mr. Putin previously published such notes of sympathy in the wake of terrorist attacks in Israel.
And he has not yet called Mr. Netanyahu, even though he spoke with Israeli leaders at least 11 times in 2022 and developed a close relationship with Mr. Netanyahu over more than a decade of meetings and phone calls. Instead, Mr. Putin’s spokesman on Monday struck a neutral stance, saying that Russia was “extremely concerned” and calling for an immediate halt to the fighting.’

(…)

‘Rabbi Goldschmidt spoke by phone from Israel, where he had just attended the funeral of an Israeli soldier slain in the fighting on Saturday; he said the deceased, Yuval Ben Yaakov, was the son of another former Moscow rabbi. He added that many Jewish leaders had once seen Mr. Putin as an ally in keeping the memory of World War II alive, but when the Russian president started falsely equating Ukraine’s current government to Nazi Germany to justify an invasion, “that’s when the Jews said: ‘We’re not part of it.’” There are clear geopolitical reasons for Mr. Putin’s shift on Israel. In the Middle East, where Russia has long tried to play a kingmaker role and build relations with all major powers, Moscow now finds itself beholden to Iran — Israel’s bitter enemy — as one of its primary arms suppliers for the war in Ukraine.’ (…)
‘There have been signs since last year that the relationship was fraying. Russia cracked down on the Jewish Agency, an Israeli nonprofit that was a mainstay of Jewish life in Russia and helped Russian Jews move to Israel. In June, Russia’s Foreign Ministry summoned the Israeli ambassador to claim that Israel’s envoy to Ukraine was complicit in “whitewashing” Nazi crimes. (Some Ukrainian independence fighters fought alongside Nazi Germany against the Soviet Union in World War II, the foundation of Mr. Putin’s spurious claims that Ukraine’s current leaders are Nazis.)’

(…)

‘He added that the Russian propagandists casting the incursion as a boon for Russia may have a point. The Kremlin “passively is a beneficiary for now, at least,” of the fighting, Mr. Gabuev said — if only because senior officials in Washington may have less time to focus on how best to support Ukraine.
The Kremlin’s grievance — even Schadenfreude — has played out on Russian state television in recent days. Many commentators taunted the tens of thousands of Russian Jews who had fled to Israel after Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine — in some cases to avoid being drafted into the Russian Army — and who now found themselves in the middle of another war.
“Let’s watch him go into Gaza now with a weapon in hand,” one talk show guest said of a Russian tech tycoon, Arkady Volozh, who had relocated to Israel and spoken out against the invasion of Ukraine.’

(…)

‘Israel has not participated in Western sanctions against Russia, and has refused to provide weapons to Ukraine because, Mr. Netanyahu has said, they could end up in Iranian hands. In June, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry claimed that the Israeli government was ignoring the suffering of Ukrainian Jews while opting for “a path of close cooperation with the Russian Federation.” But in recent days, Mr. Zelensky has cast those criticisms aside and embraced Israel’s cause. In a speech to NATO on Monday, he said that Russia and Hamas, the Palestinian faction that controls Gaza, represented “the same evil.” “The only difference is that there is a terrorist organization that attacked Israel, and here is a terrorist state that attacked Ukraine,” Mr. Zelensky said.’

Read the article here.

Yes, this war is very much to the liking of Putin. It makes the West – and Israel is perceived as part of the West – look weak. It will distract attention from Ukraine, and anyhow the war in Ukraine lost its ‘attraction’ to most people in the West.

And Iran and Russia share some common interests. How this will play out in the long run is not clear yet. I would say that the war is already going and on coming might change the Middle East, if this war also becomes a full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel, which I hope needless to say is not going to happen, more than it will change the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Already Turkey is using the opportunity bomb some of its Kurdish enemies.
If the war reaches Lebanon it remains to be seen what happens in Syria.

As they say, all bets are off.