On the powder keg – The Economist:

‘Iran’s goal right now, as it has been over the past decade, is not to provoke outright war with the West and its allies but to sow uncertainty and instability. Just as it has hovered on the threshold of becoming a nuclear power, so it maintains strategic ambiguity with the axis. It denies it is in charge while supplying armed groups like the Houthis with arms, giving them training and using them as fronts to conduct attacks, such as a missile strike on Saudi Aramco in 2019 which temporarily shuttered 5% of global oil production. The purpose is to intimidate while complicating the West’s calculus. That strategy pleases Iran’s ever-closer friend, Russia. Similarly isolated from the West, it engages in weapons trade and sanctions-busting with the Islamic republic: think of Iranian-designed Shahed-136 kamikaze drones killing Ukrainians.
The present crisis shows the opportunities and problems of Iran’s approach. It has long sponsored Hamas but did not appear to know in advance about its attack on Israel on October 7th, according to Western officials familiar with the matter. Yet it has sought to capitalise on Hamas’s atrocities and mobilise the axis of resistance. Hizbullah and Israel have exchanged fire, with the explicit support of Iran and America, respectively. As many as 19 of Hizbullah’s fighters have been killed. The Houthis, who control Yemen’s capital, have launched three medium-range cruise missiles, recently acquired from Iran, and a number of drones towards Eilat, Israel’s port city (they were intercepted by an American destroyer). And Iranian-backed Shia militias in Syria and Iraq have broadened the struggle by repeatedly targeting bases housing American troops with rockets and drones (America has drawn down its diplomatic presence in Iraq as a result).’

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‘Regional turmoil also means more cash for Iran, at least for now. Oil prices have climbed by over $5 per barrel since October 7th. America is anxious to tamp down inflation in the run-up to its election next year and has been tacitly allowing Iran to export more oil, despite formally retaining sanctions. “Those Iranian barrels are very important” to Joe Biden, says Ahmed Mehdi, a London-based oil analyst. Production has topped 3m barrels per day, its highest levels since the Trump administration imposed sanctions in 2018. Year on year, Mr Mehdi says, exports are up by over a third.
Yet the escalating proxy war with America and its friends comes with big risks for Iran. At home officials crow that they have become “statesmen” again, with president Ebrahim Raisi—viewed by many in the West as a hardline pariah—speaking to the French president, Emmanuel Macron, in recent days. Ordinary Iranians are less impressed. A regional war could prompt a new cycle of protests at home. Armita Geravand, an Iranian schoolgirl who collapsed on October 1st after a beating from the morality police, according to local activists, has been declared brain-dead—news that could revive the outrage that brought Iranian protesters into the streets in 2022 after the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, detained for “improperly” wearing the mandatory veil. Iranians are exhausted by their regime’s adventures abroad and reluctant to endure more suffering for Palestine. Government-organised protests have been sparsely attended. A minute’s silence at a football match in Tehran for those killed in Gaza was interrupted by raucous guffaws. “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon,” protesters chanted from their windows. “We sacrifice our lives for Iran.”’

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‘The proxies must also balance their military aspirations with the interests of their host countries. According to Iranian officials, Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president, has told Hizbullah he has no desire to heed its calls to attack Israel from his territory. In his view, Hamas betrayed him by siding with the rebellion against him in 2011 after he gave them sanctuary. He does not want to fight for them now.’

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‘Only a month ago, the regime was celebrating a prisoner exchange with America and the imminent transfer to Iran of $6bn of frozen oil revenues. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had blessed direct talks for the first time since the Trump administration withdrew from a nuclear deal. Some spoke of a new detente. Now that lies in tatters—and the chances of a catastrophic wider war, while still low, are far too high for comfort.’

Read the article here.

An all-out war might as well be the end of Assad’s regime, he seems to be aware of that.

Even though nobody wants an all-out war one mistake, and the all-out war might be there.
And chances are that the US will be part of the all-out war.

The relentless delay of the ground war in Gaza might be the result of the US pressure, but it’s very well possible that the military establishment came to the conclusion that an IDF ground offensive might follow the logic of Hamas. Regardless of the question of the hostages.

The postponement of the ground offensive might very well be military strategy, (is it postponement?) after all how many mistakes can the IDF afford after the collapse on Saturday October 7?