On the only deliverance – The Economist:

‘If you want to understand how desperately Israelis and Palestinians need peace, consider what would become of them in a state of perpetual war. Against a vastly superior Israeli army, the Palestinians’ most powerful weapon would remain the death and suffering of their own people. Israel’s fate would be woeful, too, if it wants to be a flourishing, modern democracy. If Israel permanently relies on its army to subjugate the Palestinians, it would become an apartheid-enforcing pariah. Israelis carrying out daily acts of oppression punctuated by rounds of killing would themselves be corrupted. For two peoples locked in a violent embrace, peace is the only deliverance.’

(…)

‘Negotiators in the past have thrashed out almost every imaginable permutation of land swaps and security arrangements. All failed.’

(…)

‘Peace also requires new leaders, because the present ones are discredited. In Israel Binyamin Netanyahu is an obstacle to a genuine reconciliation, the sooner he goes the better. America could usefully signal that it expects Israel to hold elections soon. Polls suggest that he will be replaced by Benny Gantz, a former general who understands the toll of war. Mr Gantz has not endorsed a Palestinian state, but neither has he ruled one out.’

(…)

‘Land swaps can wait, but Israel should deal with the settlements too deep in the West Bank ever to be part of Israel. It must start policing them and stop them from expanding further. It needs to be clear that the 100,000 or so settlers who live in them will eventually have to move or come under Palestinian rule.’

(…)

‘Time for that is short. Israel’s anti-Palestinian right will remain strong. Once this government falls, the next may have only a single term to rekindle Israelis’ faith that peace is possible. In the PA a new leader will face enemies who got fat under today’s rotten system. Whatever remains of Hamas will seek to wreck peace, as will Iran and its proxies, who thrive on chaos and strife. The Biden administration may be willing to press Israel; a Trump administration might not. If permanent war is not to ruin two nations, Israelis, Palestinians and all who cherish them must seize the moment.’

Read the article here.

Theoretically this is all true.

In reality, we know a few things. Peace processes can easily be derailed by the use of violence of marginal groups, even lone wolfs.

The autocrat Arab leaders want Israel to crush Hamas. The Arab street of course is by and large fan of Hamas. But these Arab leaders are not elected, keep that in mind. Democracy has yet to come.

The majority of the settlers on the West Bank, although a more diverse group than many people think, is not ready to leave. This is not Gaza 2005. There’s no Sharon. Sharon was radical in his times, nowadays there are people much more radical than Sharon.

Political Messianism on both sides is popular. Realpolitik and God can go well together, but it is rare.

The Israeli left was already diminished, October 7 was not a boost for the left and/or a peace process.

But you can argue that October 7 was a big win for Hamas, which in my view it was, morality and victory are not always the same, Palestine is back on the international agenda, with a vengeance.

And so, the international community realizes that it should invest more to bring peace to the region.
But how?

Forget international troops in Gaza. It’s not going to happen, and if it’s going to happen it’s a disaster in the making. Think of American marines in Beirut.

Think of Putin. He is interested in the continuation of this conflict, and so are many others.

My fear is that the best and probably only option is the return to a more or less frozen conflict. See Syria, see Ukraine, see Iraq, see the Kurdish question, et cetera.

The whole Israeli military operation has only true goal, the return of a sense of deterioration. The hope that Hamas, and Hamas won’t disappear, will think twice before launching a new military operation.

Also, after the war, the progressives in the West and the leaders in the West will rapidly forget Gaza, the Palestinians and the war. Other wars, other crises will come.

It’s possible that I’m wrong. But we will see how and when Netanyahu will disappear and what will come after him. That will tell us a lot.