On bounties and despair – Neil MacFarquhar in NYT:

‘Analysts see the most optimal outcome for Israel probably consisting of degrading Hamas’s military capabilities to prevent the group from repeating such a devastating attack. But even that limited goal is considered a formidable slog.
Hamas is rooted in the ideology that Israeli control over what it regards as Palestinians lands must be opposed by force, a tenet likely to endure, experts said.’

(…)

‘The Israeli military said this week that it had killed about 8,000 Hamas fighters out of a force estimated at 25,000 to 40,000. But it is unclear how the count is being made. About 500 have surrendered, according to the military, though Hamas has denied that all were from its ranks.’

(…)

‘The Israeli military distributed fliers in Gaza recently offering cash for information leading to the arrest of four Hamas leaders.
“Hamas has lost its power. They couldn’t fry an egg,” said the flier in Arabic, quoting a folk expression. “The end of Hamas is near.” The military promised $400,000 for Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s leader in Gaza, and $100,000 for Mohammed Deif, head of its military wing, the Qassam Brigades. The two are considered the architects of the Oct. 7 attack.
Although long among the most wanted men in Gaza, the elusive Mr. Deif has avoided assassination or capture. The only picture of him in public is a decades-old headshot.’

(…)

‘“Hamas is actually weathering this assault quite well,” said Tareq Baconi, an author who wrote a book about the group. “It’s still showing that it has an offensive military capability.” Giora Eiland, a retired major general and former head of Israel’s National Security Council, said Hamas had demonstrated the ability to quickly replace commanders who are killed with others equally capable and equally devoted.
“From a professional point of view, I must give credit to their resilience,” he said. “I cannot see any signs of collapse of the military abilities of Hamas nor in their political strength to continue to lead Gaza.”’

(…)

‘Israel once allowed the group to grow as an Islamist counterweight to the more mainstream and secular Palestine Liberation Organization.
In one of Israel’s first, notorious efforts to dismantle Hamas, in 1992, it deported 415 of its leaders and allies, dumping them in a buffer zone along the Israel-Lebanon border. Over the months before their return, they built an alliance with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the most powerful Iran-backed militia in the region.
The United States and Israel condemn both Hezbollah and Hamas as terrorist organizations.
A string of Israeli assassinations of Hamas political, military and religious leaders also failed to weaken the group. It won control of Gaza in free Palestinian elections in 2006, then evicted its more moderate rival, the Palestinian Authority, in a bloody conflict the next year.
Israel fought three other wars in Gaza targeting Hamas between 2008 and the current crisis.
The operations of the Hamas military wing, the Qassam Brigades, remain opaque. The units were designed to continue functioning even if Israel destroyed parts.’ (…)

‘Hamas refuses to recognize Israel, and according to its founding charter, is committed to its destruction.
The scale of Israel’s war is likely to radicalize a new generation: More than 20,000 Gazans have been reported killed thus far, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.
Some Gazans curse Hamas, even taking to the airwaves or social media to do it, despite the organization’s history of repressing opponents. Other Gazans, however, say that they still back “the resistance,” and Hamas has long attracted support by providing services like schools and clinics.
A recent poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research found that most respondents endorsed the Hamas attack on Israel. Support for Hamas in Gaza since the war started has risen to 42 percent, from 38 percent, the poll reported.’ Read the article here.

$400,000 for Sinwar, the US once offered $25 million for Bin Laden, I would be offended if I were Sinwar.

The bounties seem to be a bit desperate.
The destruction of Hamas is an illusion, the destruction of (parts of) Gaza is very real. This can be rebuild quickly, think of German cities after 1945, but even if considerable money from donor countries will pouring into Gaza it’s unclear how long the reconstruction of Gaza will take and what kind of Gaza will exist after the reconstruction.

Also, a war with Hezbollah is edging closer, which will make any progress in Gaza more difficult.

The rise from 38% to 42% support for Hamas in Gaza after October 7 is much more limited than I had expected.

The purpose of all this destruction, of the war in Gaza, is to prevent future full-scale attacks like the one we saw on October 7 by making the price for the attack too high.
But a side effect of this Israeli endeavor is that it will breed more fighters, more hate, more willingness to die, even for a seemingly lost cause.