On surviving – Harel in Haaretz:
‘The truth, as usual, is more complicated. Hamas wasn't invited to the Paris summit and the optimism broadcast on Sunday at the end of the talk reflected what had taken place between the Israeli negotiators and the American and Arab mediators. That is something akin to a marriage agreement between the groom and the rabbi before the bride has been consulted on her opinion. Moreover, the moment that the particulars of the proposal began to surface in the Israeli media on Monday, half-denials began to appear from the direction of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office.’
(…)
‘It is already evident that the extreme right-wing of the government will create difficulties for any kind of deal. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir was quick to express opposition to any deal that entails concessions and issued threats to bring down the government (Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich is not far away from that). The right is worried that a lengthy cease-fire will effectively end the war and therefore leave Hamas in power, at least in southern Gaza. Netanyahu is also aware that a partial release of hostages in exchange for thousands of Palestinian prisoners will be interpreted by large sections of the Israeli public as an admission that the Gaza offensive has failed.’
(…)
‘At the same time, no one can deny that the proposed deal will be an achievement for Hamas, no matter how the government chooses to present it. Even if it removes the danger to the lives of the hostages, the right will look on angrily as the Israel Defense Forces' reduces its presence in Gaza while Hamas celebrates in the areas the army has left.
At the opposite end of the spectrum to Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, inside the security cabinet stand the National Unity Party ministers Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, who are also members of the smaller war cabinet, who support the deal even at the cost of major concessions. Opposition leader Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) said Tuesday that his party would provide the government with a "safety net for any deal that returns the hostages to their homes."’
(…)
‘In other words, one way or the other – if a deal moves forward – the coalition has slim prospects of surviving in its current form. No matter what Netanyahu decides, either the right or the left will abandon him. On the one hand, there is no realistic deal that Ben-Gvir and Smotrich could ever live with; on the other hand, there seems to be no scenario where the negotiations collapse (barring Hamas intransigence) and Gantz and Eisenkot remain in the government for an extended period.’
(…)
‘Saudi officials in recent weeks have expressed the need for a more decisive commitment from Israel to recognize a Palestinian state after the war in the Gaza Strip ends. But beyond these official statements, it is evident that the kingdom has not yet given up on the idea of normalization with Israel.
Riyadh's demands, presented to the Biden administration as part of the negotiations for the agreement more than a year ago, remain unchanged: a defense pact with the U.S., advanced American weapons and a green light for a civilian nuclear project.’
Read the article here.
If he has the choice between his own political survival or freeing the hostages Netanyahu will choose his own survival. Or he will compromise and survive thanks to the ‘left’. For the time being.
Also, Saudi-Arabia, for those who have missed it, wants to have a nuclear bomb, the Palestinians are just change in this grand project.
Biden might want to ‘complete’ this project in the next three, four months, as Harel states.
Calm is also for him more important than justice.
Saudi-Arabia and Israel as strategic partners for the US in the Middle East should at least partly restore American influence in the region. If one partner fails, you still have the other. Saudi-Arabia might be more stable. After all, a more or less enlightened king, more or less, keeps his people obedient.