On a deal, or not – Harel in Haaretz:
‘If there were any chances for a deal being agreed upon in the near future, they seem to be receding, presenting a clear and present danger to the lives of the hostages, given the harsh conditions under which they are being held and the time that has elapsed since they were kidnapped on October 7.’
(…)
‘Netanyahu has time, as does Haniyeh – the hostages are the only ones who are running out of this valuable resource.
The Biden administration is striving to reach a first stage of a new deal, involving the "humanitarian" release of 35 women, as well as elderly and ill hostages, in exchange for a cease-fire lasting 45 days, before the month of Ramadan starts on March 10. For now, it seems that the gaps between the two sides are large, both with regard to the extent of the IDF's withdrawal and around the "key," the ratio of released hostages to the number of Palestinian prisoners set free.’
(…)
‘And yet, one cannot say that the heads of the defense establishment are going out of their way in order to pressure Netanyahu into quickly agreeing to a deal. It's not just a question of accepting the authority of political echelons because a cessation of the fighting will accelerate the investigations into the failures which led to the war and the expected resignations of senior defense officials. Even subconsciously, the defense establishment has some interest in continuing the war. Netanyahu definitely has such an interest, as perceived in his frequent vows to achieve a "total victory" over Hamas, one lying just around the corner.’
(…)
‘ Very few people, in Israel and in the international arena, understand what Netanyahu is aiming for.
On the ground, it's hard to get the impression that the army is pressuring the government to move toward Rafah. The IDF and the Shin Bet are still focused on Khan Yunis, where the chase continues after Hamas senior figures, headed by Yahya Sinwar. This operation will require several more weeks at least. And, there is no certainty that it will end with the capture of these figures.’
(…)
‘There is also a noticeable impact on the fighting spirit among Hamas combatants, a result of the harsh conditions inside tunnels, with problems of ventilation, supplies and the pressure exerted by IDF attacks. Only a few commanders have remained behind to lead their men. All of this has not yet been translated into a critical mass leading to a Hamas surrender under military pressure.’
Read the article here.
Total victory is an illusion, it has been said before, it must be repeated.
What victory from the Israeli perspective means is unclear. Beyond dreaming that Hamas wil disappear. The return of the hostages?
(Hamas already won.)
All parties have their own reasons for continuing the war. Netanyahu because of his own survival, obviously, the top of IDF is hoping consciously or unconsciously to postpone the establishment of all kinds of committees that will dig into the failures that led to October 7. And Hamas, especially the leadership living outside Gaza, is in no rush to end this war.
It’s peace or something resembling peace that will weaken Hamas.