On all sorts of collapses – Helene Cooper, Eric Schmitt and Thomas Gibbons-Neff in NYT:

‘More than two years into their wartime alliance, the bond between the United States and Ukraine is showing signs of wear and tear, giving way to mutual frustration and a feeling that the relationship might be stuck in a bit of a rut.’

(…)

‘The most recent example involved the battle for the eastern city of Avdiivka, which fell to Russia last month. U.S. officials say Ukraine defended Avdiivka too long and at too great a cost.’

(…)

‘Neither the Americans nor the Ukrainians are heading for exit doors. Their commitment remains solid, as each side needs the other. The U.S. intelligence community still provides a substantial amount of real-time information to Ukraine’s military on Russian command posts, ammunition depots and other key nodes in Russian military lines. The Pentagon still hosts monthly Contact Group meetings to prod Ukraine’s partners to provide money, weapons and ammunition.
Perhaps most of all for the Biden administration, Ukraine is hollowing out the army of one of America’s biggest foes.
U.S. estimates put the number of Russian troops killed or wounded since the war started at around a staggering 350,000, according to American officials. Russia has also lost huge amounts of equipment; some 2,200 tanks out of 3,500 have been destroyed along with one-third of its armored vehicles, according to a congressional staff member who saw an intelligence assessment.
Even Russia’s victory in Avdiivka has come with considerable cost: A pro-war Russian military blogger said in a post that Russia had lost 16,000 men and 300 armored vehicles in its assault. (The blogger, Andrei Morozov, deleted the post late last month after what he said was a campaign of intimidation against him. He died the next day.)’

(…)

‘The counteroffensive failed. At the Pentagon, some officials say they do not consider last summer’s efforts to have been a counteroffensive at all.
“We say in the military, when you seek to attack everywhere, you can end up attacking nowhere — because your forces are spread too thin,” said James G. Stavridis, a retired admiral and the former supreme allied commander for Europe. “The Pentagon sees this as a mistake and will continue to offer advice to the Ukrainians along these lines.”’

(…)

‘Western officials and military experts have warned that without U.S. assistance, a cascading collapse along the front is a real possibility this year.’

Read the article here.

It’s hard to control allies, even if they are dependent on you.

350,000 wounded or killed Russian soldiers is staggering indeed. The fog of war probably requires that we don’t have any numbers of Ukrainian losses.

I don’t think that the Biden-administration will accept a collapse of the front. It has been said before, also the war in Ukraine will be decided in the US in November. At least for the time being.
The war probably will peter out like the civil war in Syria. But, see under: Syria, that can take years.

And apparently the Kremlin nowadays throws also loose-lipped bloggers out of windows.