On Niger – Matthias Gebauer, Christina Hebel, Marina Kormbaki, Britta Sandberg and Fritz Schaap in Der Spiegel:

‘It has been just a few hours since the gate to the French Embassy went up in flames, thousands paraded through the streets of Niamey and Russian flags flew under the hot Savannah sky. Boubaca Adamou is sitting in his small house in the Fada-Loubatou district with around 20 of his fellow campaigners, rejoicing in the destruction.

A 54-year-old teacher wearing a green shirt and khaki pants, Adamou is an anti-French activist and a supporter of the M62, a movement eager to expel all foreign troops from Niger. In his view, the July 26 military coup that swept democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum out of office was redemption. The mood in the room is cheerful, with the men sitting on white plastic chairs drinking tea, some smoking. They all agree that France has no place in Niger.’

(…)

‘On July 26, the spokesman for the Nigerien military stated that security forces had decided to "put an end to the regime" – allegedly because of the deteriorating security situation and bad governance.
It was the fifth military coup in Niger since the country's independence, but this overthrow is different from the previous ones. It is the latest in a series of such putsches: Almost the entire Sahel, a strategically important region of Africa, is now ruled by regimes installed by a coup, with six successful overthrows in the region since 2020. The area some are calling the "Coup Belt" stretches south of the Sahara, nearly 6,000 kilometers (3,728 miles) long, from Guinea on the west coast of the continent to Sudan on the east coast. In Mali, where an estimated 1,500 mercenaries from Russia's Wagner Group are stationed, and in Burkina Faso, Moscow has established itself as an important supporter of the new rulers, with both countries now positioning themselves explicitly against the former colonial power France.’

(…)

‘Niger, like the entire Coup Belt, has now become a theater of geopolitical power struggles. Russia has emerged as the continent's largest arms supplier, sending Wagner mercenaries to autocrats in need. After Mali and Burkina Faso turned to the Kremlin, the French withdrew from those countries as well.’

(…)

‘Indeed, that is another reason why Western governments, including that of Germany, are extremely concerned following the coup. With Niger, they have to fear not only losing their most important partner in the Sahel, but also the last reliable one. Around 1,500 French and 1,100 American soldiers are still stationed in the country, and Niger is of significant geostrategic importance to the U.S. The American military operates several drone bases in the country, which it uses for reconnaissance missions throughout the region, including Libya and Sudan. Around 100 soldiers with Germany's armed forces, the Bundeswehr, are also stationed in the country. The European Union, too, has long regarded Niger as an important partner and Brussels has long been seeking the country's help in curbing irregular migration from Africa. Niger is home to a number of refugee camps.’

(…)

‘Niger is one of the world's poorest countries. The elites have a reputation for corruption, and the state has no presence in many areas of the country, which ranks 189th out of 191 on the United Nations' Human Development Index. Furthermore, Islamist terror plagues the population, and offshoots of both the Islamic State and al-Qaida continue to spread in the Sahel. Still, unlike its neighboring countries, Western aid contributed to some improvement of the security situation in Niger in the past year.
"What we are witnessing is the demise of democratic governments in this region," says Alain Antil, director of the Center for Sub-Saharan Africa at the Institut français des relations internationales in Paris (IFRI).
In June, IFRI published a study on anti-French sentiment in many African countries, concluding that anti-French sentiment in the region is growing. But it is also increasingly being fomented and tapped by the political elites of these countries to explain grievances or their own failures. France has been turned into the scapegoat.’

(…)

‘The cause of the coup in Niger appears to be a conflict between the president and some of his commanders. Bazoum, it is said, didn't want to extend the term of General Abdourahamane Tchiani, the commander of his presidential guard. In addition, Bazoum reportedly rejected closer cooperation with the military rulers of neighboring countries – ties that many in the Nigerien military were in favor of. A short time later, General Tchiani declared himself the country's leader.’

(…)

‘For Europe and the United States, the coup now raises the question of how to fight Islamist terrorism in the region in the future. According to the Global Terrorism Index, the Sahel has surpassed the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia to become the epicenter of global terrorism. Its data shows that almost half of the approximately 6,700 people killed in terrorist acts around the world in 2022 were located in the Sahel. In 2007, the region accounted for just 1 percent of such deaths.
The West must find new ways of preventing jihadists from spreading further in the region, says Cameron Hudson of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. He says the international approach so far has largely been to fight them on the ground. But now, he argues, it is necessary to move to a containment strategy. "That means recognizing that the jihadist forces will continue to exist," he says. Some might think that means giving up on the Sahel. But how can you help in the fight against terrorism in the region if you aren't welcome?"’

Read the article here.

Russia is not winning the war in Ukraine, but it is winning the war in Africa, at least in certain regions in Africa.

It’s only a matter of time before the West will be forced to invest, economically, and also with boots on the ground, in this area.

The era of Islamic terrorism appears to be over, just as the era of plane kidnappings ended, but the power struggle behind Islamic terrorism is far from over. The Sahel might be one of the fighting grounds, an ideal region for proxy wars.