On another quagmire – The Economist:

‘The coalition had valid reason to strike the Houthis: freedom of navigation is a core tenet of international law. To do nothing would be to tolerate the blockade of a waterway that handles perhaps 30% of global container traffic. Hapag-Lloyd, a German container firm, welcomed the action: “The strikes were needed to guarantee the freedom of navigation through a vital sea route.” Whether the strikes will be effective is another matter: the Houthis have proved resilient before.
Once the instigators of a local Shia rebellion in northern Yemen, the Houthis swept south in 2014 amid the chaos that followed the overthrow of Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen’s longtime dictator, and seized most of the country’s big population centres. A Saudi-led coalition invaded in March 2015 to remove them from power and restore the internationally recognised government. At the time, Saudi officials thought they could wrap up the war in six weeks. It turned into a proxy war against Iran, and almost nine years later they are still trying to extract themselves from a quagmire.’ (…)

‘The Houthis for their part showed little concern for the cost of war. Yemen has often been described as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. The UN estimates that 223,000 people have died from hunger and lack of medical care since the war began. 80% of the population now lives in poverty. None of this bothered the Houthis, who stole food aid, imposed a raft of taxes to raise funds and relied on Iran for military support. They have maintained a long siege on the south-western city of Taiz, barring civilians from bringing in food and medicine—exactly as they accuse Israel of doing in Gaza.’

(…)

‘Over the last decade Iran has supplied the group with a diverse stockpile of anti-ship missiles, including the 800km-range Paveh. The Houthis now operate up to six different types of anti-ship cruise missiles and another six variants of anti-ship ballistic missiles, according to a study by Fabian Hinz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank, though many of the latter are unproven. In addition to the missiles, the Houthis have also experimented with uncrewed surface vessels, or drone boats.
It is unclear how much of this arsenal has survived the barrage. Western warnings and leaks in the press gave the Houthis weeks to disperse and conceal their weapons, many of which are relatively small and mobile. If a significant proportion were nonetheless destroyed, the Houthis may be forced to ration missile strikes, allowing a greater proportion to be intercepted by Western warships in the area and creating a safer environment for commercial shipping to get through.’ (…)

‘The Houthis have proven their worth to Iran, which will probably ensure more Iranian support.
Conflict with the West could have other benefits for them. Their supposed blockade of Israel has already won them new admiration across the Arab world, tapping into pro-Palestinian sentiment at a time when Arab states are feckless bystanders to the war in Gaza. Being targeted by America, while anti-Americanism is running high because of Mr Biden’s support for Israel, will add to their popularity.
It could also strengthen their hand in peace talks with Saudi Arabia. A few years ago the Saudis might have cheered Western strikes on the Houthis. Today they are in the awkward position of calling for calm, lest the group decide to expand its campaign by targeting Gulf states with missiles or drones (as they have done hundreds of times in the past). The events of the past two months will reinforce to the Saudis why they want to cut a deal and end their war—even if it leaves the Houthis as the dominant force in Yemen.
America does not want to be dragged into another long Middle Eastern conflict. The Houthis have no such qualms.’

Read the article here.

Iran was one of the winners of the war in Syria, of the war in Ukraine, and seemingly also of the Gaza war.

The US will do its utmost to avoid a regional war, but given Biden’s hesitation to strike Yemen this is already a defeat.

The war that nobody wanted is not there yet, thar war is let’s say still a fetus.