On arrogance – Yaniv Kubovich in Haaretz:

‘One of those who frequently appeared onscreen in those days – moving from one studio panel to the next to analyze and plead – was Maj. Gen. (res.) Tamir Hayman. He now heads the Tel Aviv University-affiliated Institute for National Security Studies and has previously held several positions in the military. His last role was as head of Military Intelligence between 2018 and 2021. In other words, he has the résumé of an expert on Hamas and Gaza. And yet?

In a private meeting held at a base in the center of the country during his tenure, Hayman said: "It's fascinating to see the process that Hamas is undergoing." He added: "They have a growing commitment to governing and this is creating tensions within the movement – between the desire to fight [on the one hand] and governing and concern for infrastructure [on the other]."

This was one example. Another is his remarks after what was later announced as a military "deception" during the brief Gaza war of May 2021, in which the air force bombed Hamas underground structures after the military hinted it was planning a ground incursion, with the expectation that Hamas members would flee into its tunnels "The current activity isn't allowing them to be safe underground," Hayman quickly asserted.’

(…)

‘Like Military Intelligence, Aviv Kochavi, chief of staff between 2019 and 2023, believed Hamas had been sufficiently deterred by Israel and that, practically speaking, both of them were facing a common enemy: Islamic Jihad.’

(…)

‘That December, confidence that Hamas was deterred rose even higher. Hamas, Kochavi said, saw the damage caused to Islamic Jihad in Operation Black Belt and internalized it. "It can be said unequivocally that any enemy facing us is afraid of getting into a war with us," he said. And what if there were a war, nevertheless, against the odds? Kochavi set a clear timetable for that scenario – one that hasn't aged well. "A long duration of [a] war, say 50 days, is a victory for the enemy."’

(…)

‘On May 21, 2021, the cease-fire that ended Operation Guardian of the Walls came into effect. Two days later, Chief of Staff Kochavi visited the operations division at the Southern Command intelligence department and said: "We must remain critical towards ourselves [and] remain humble." No criticism was voiced, and the humility rose to the higher stories of the IDF headquarters building only at 6:29 A.M. on October 7.’

Read the article here.

The overconfidence of the Israeli security apparatus is by now well-known but details are always welcome.

And a fifty-day-war is a victory, what’s a one-hundred-and-sixtyone-day war? An invincible defeat?