On the first and the second hill – Harel in Haaretz:

‘The latest escalation puts all the sides to the conflict in an entirely different situation, in which Israel's war with Hamas and even with Hezbollah are relegated to second place after the Israeli-Iranian conflict.’

(…)

‘There is no doubt that Israel will respond, and very forcefully, to the massive Iranian attack. Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the Israel Defense Forces spokesman, said the attack "will have consequences." The United States, which is less than five weeks away from presidential elections, is likely to be drawn into the confrontation, against its will.’

(…)

‘Israel is dependent on the United States not only to coordinate aerial defenses, but also for a continued supply of arms for its offensive operations.
These facts have somehow escaped Netanyahu's die-hard fans who, following Israel's successes in Beirut, are now crazed with a new fantasy – attacking Iran's nuclear facilities without coordinating with America. The messianists' views on this issue are already being heard loud and clear in television studios. But the reality is that when it comes to Iran's nuclear problem, Israel must act in coordination with America, both to ensure that significant, long-term damage is done and to obtain necessary assistance in both defending itself and attacking.’

(…)

‘What is inarguable is that Hezbollah is in a completely different place than it was a few weeks ago. On October 8, 2023, when Nasrallah decided to join the war that Hamas launched in the south the day before, he restricted the fire of his organization's militants to long-distance: antitank missiles, short-range rockets and afterward also drones.
The idea was to pin down large Israeli numbers of forces along the Lebanon border and thus to make his contribution to the Palestinians' struggle in Gaza, without sending his forces to attack inside Israel. Nasrallah's strategy proved itself for about 11 months, even though about 500 of his troops were killed in incidents along the border and a number of the organization's ranking figures were also killed.’

(…)

‘The most blatant evidence of the achievements to date is the limited damage Hezbollah has inflicted on the Israeli home front. It appears that the primary reason for Hezbollah's limited response to date is related to the shock that is gripping the organization's top ranks, and not due to a lack of medium range missiles. Despite Israel's significant strikes on Hezbollah's missile stockpiles, the group still has many hundreds of missiles and it's likely that once it pulls its command back together, it will start firing more accurately.
Hezbollah's leadership – more accurately, the new top ranks — is in a state of shock given what has happened. Hezbollah based itself on a veteran command group, which sprang up with Nasrallah in the organization amid its founding at the beginning of the 1980s, and reached their senior positions already almost two decades ago. Almost all those people are gone – either assassinated over the year or eliminated in the past two weeks.’

(…)

‘This is a limited move with the aim of pushing back the terrorists from the border, restoring security and bringing back the resident of the evacuated communities. The risks, which as usual are mentioned less, are also known: The slippery slope lies between the first hill that's seized in order to carry out the mission, and the second one, which is stormed in order to protect the forces on the first hill from fire. Thus you sometimes find yourself stuck in a foreign land for 18 years, maybe more. Only one thing seems sure: the land shall not rest quiet, certainly not for 40 years.’

Read the article here.

You sometimes find yourself stuck in a foreign land. As if its beyond your control.

The US will do its utmost not to be drawn into the confrontation.

Mich depends on Israels response to yesterday’s attack.

Forget the hostages. Forget Gaza. Forget the negotiations. It’s now Lebanon. And Iran.

The leaders over there might conclude that without an atomic bomb they won’t survive.