On an ascendancy – Nate Cohn in NYT:

‘In the wake of the midterms, Donald J. Trump appeared to be finished. He may still lose, of course, but he clearly wasn’t “disqualified” — as many expected — by Jan. 6, several criminal indictments or an overturning of Roe v. Wade by his Supreme Court appointees. If voters disqualified any candidate in 2024, it was the sitting president, not the felon who attempted to overturn the last election.
How is Mr. Trump still so competitive? The simplest answer is that the national political environment just isn’t as conducive to a Democratic victory as many might imagine.’

(…)

‘In the United States, post-pandemic disillusionment and frustration took a toll on Democrats. The party championed a tough response to the virus, including mask and vaccine mandates, school closures and lockdowns. It had backed the Black Lives Matter movement, argued for a more liberal border policy, sought to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and spent trillions on stimulus. As the pandemic ended, all of this quickly became a liability.

Unlike other governing parties, Democrats have the Trump card to play. Along with abortion, it could be enough to allow Democrats to prevail. That’s exactly what happened in the 2022 midterm elections. But even if Kamala Harris emerges as the winner, it will not necessarily be a victory for progressives.’

(…)

‘Liberalism has been ascendant in the culture as well. The period was marked by a series of popular movements on the activist left, from the Obama ’08 campaign to Occupy Wall Street, Black Lives Matter, #MeToo, the Bernie Sanders campaign and calls for a Green New Deal and Medicare for all.
The election of Mr. Trump didn’t stop this outpouring of liberal energy. Instead, it accelerated it. His election alarmed and outraged millions, who saw him as racist, sexist and a threat to democracy. The murder of George Floyd and the pandemic only added to the outrage, leading to a vigilant and righteous new left that preached antiracism and coronavirus restrictions. It culminated in a wave of protests and so-called “woke” progressive activism on race and gender.
Over just the last few years, all of this liberal energy suddenly seemed to vanish.’

(…)

‘On issue after issue, Democrats have responded by moving to the right. Most obviously, Ms. Harris had to back away from positions she took when the progressive cultural ascendancy was near its peak in 2019 — a ban on fracking, Medicare for all and so on. But the Democratic shift isn’t simply about backing away from positions taken during a Democratic primary. Across the board, Democrats have de-emphasized policies they preached with confidence to a general electorate only a few years ago.
On immigration, Ms. Harris’s first priority is a border security bill, rather than the comprehensive solution long backed by Latino activists and even centrist Democrats a decade ago. On energy, Democrats brag about increasing domestic oil production. On crime, Ms. Harris’s record as a prosecutor is now an asset.’

(…)

‘The trend in party registration is similar, with Republicans rapidly gaining ground across the country. All of the battleground states with party registration — Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada and North Carolina — will probably have more registered Republicans than Democrats in November, even if Ms. Harris wins with support from the growing ranks of the unaffiliated.
In the longer sweep of the last 16 years, this is an enormous change. When Democrats came to power in 2008, they confidently entered the White House with arguably a 40-year-long list of policies to address a backlog of problems, from health care and climate to immigration and unions. They enacted much of this agenda over the last 16 years, but many voters still aren’t satisfied with the state of the country.’

(…)

‘The trend in party registration is similar, with Republicans rapidly gaining ground across the country. All of the battleground states with party registration — Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada and North Carolina — will probably have more registered Republicans than Democrats in November, even if Ms. Harris wins with support from the growing ranks of the unaffiliated.
In the longer sweep of the last 16 years, this is an enormous change. When Democrats came to power in 2008, they confidently entered the White House with arguably a 40-year-long list of policies to address a backlog of problems, from health care and climate to immigration and unions. They enacted much of this agenda over the last 16 years, but many voters still aren’t satisfied with the state of the country.’

Read the article here.

Not only in the US will the ascendancy of liberalism come to an end.

But history is a cyclical phenomenon. In ten or twenty years or so, everything might look different.

For the moment, the revolution comes from the right.