On war and peace - Zvi Bar'el in Haaretz:

‘Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian marked his 100th day in office this week, and the news isn't encouraging. The Iranian rial has plunged by about 20 percent since he took office. Prices of staple goods, electricity, water and transportation have jumped by 25 to 70 percent. And more than 440 people have been executed, almost double the number under former President Ebrahim Raisi.
More harsh decrees are expected soon, because the proposed budget for next year includes deep cuts in social welfare spending and a plan to raise gasoline prices by about 40 percent. That has raised fears of mass protests like the ones in 2019, when around 1,500 people were killed in clashes with the security forces.’

(…)

‘Speculation will presumably continue to fill the media as Trump's January 20 inauguration draws near. But one thing isn't a matter of conjecture – the visit by International Atomic Energy Commission Director General Rafael Grossi, who landed in Tehran on Wednesday and met on Thursday with Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Eslami. This is Grossi's first visit since May and expectations aren't exactly soaring.
In September, when he met with Araghchi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, he said Iran appeared intent to negotiate seriously on the issues in dispute, of which there are many. Grossi, an experience diplomat who is of Jewish background and has been involved in the nuclear field for decades and became the IAEA's director general five years ago, has been "accused" of tending toward excessive optimism and of issuing overly soft reports on Iran.’

(…)

‘But at the same time, it's reasonable to wonder about the magnitude of the threat Trump actually poses to Iran. In 2019, just a year after he quit the nuclear deal, he said: "What they should be doing is calling me up, sitting down and we can make a deal, a fair deal. We just don't want them to have nuclear weapons. It's not too much to ask. And we would help put them back into great shape."
Those almost conciliatory remarks shocked even senior administration officials, who saw them as a change in strategy after his hawkish secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, had given Iran an ultimatum consisting of 12 items and said that only signing a new nuclear deal containing all of them would get the sanctions lifted. Among other things, he demanded that Iran not enrich any uranium at all, to any level; that it stop making ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads; end its support for Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad; withdraw all Iranian and pro-Iranian forces from Syria; and stop helping the Houthis in Yemen.’

(…)

‘But it's worth recalling that one of the main obstacles to reaching a new nuclear deal under U.S. President Joe Biden was Tehran's demand for guarantees that no future administration would violate the deal. Biden was willing to promise that it wouldn't be violated during his term, but he explained to the Iranians that he couldn't compel Congress to enact a law providing such guarantees or make promises on behalf of the next president.
Trump, the very reason why Iran demanded those guarantees, will now be that next president. The question is who will call whom first.’

Read the article here.

Unpredictability has been Trump’s strategy; and will be his strategy.

War with Iran might still be an option.

But I would say that he is eyeing the Nobel Peace Prize.

He will be more interested in a deal with Iran than war with Iran.

But then again, capriciousness is his trademark.