Arnon Grunberg

Region

Security

On some corrections - Hussein Ibish in Haaretz:

‘The cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah means that the war in Lebanon is almost certainly over for now. Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons are most certainly the losers. But that doesn't mean Israel has won in any meaningful sense. The Israeli public has been told the country went to war for security. And it will now be told that security has been greatly enhanced, deterrence restored, the balance of power in the region corrected.
But that's all a mirage. Israelis have obtained not security, but the illusion of security. None of the fundamental causes of the conflict have been resolved in any sense. Israelis may feel safer, but they are not safer.’

(…)

‘Neither Hezbollah nor its Iranian patrons wanted a war with Israel over Hamas or Gaza. They understand that Hamas is, for them, an essentially unreliable ally – a Sunni Muslim Brotherhood fundamentalist group that doesn't fit organically into the almost entirely Shi'ite pro-Iranian "axis of resistance" network of Arab militia groups allied to Tehran.’

(…)

‘Hezbollah and Iran also had no interest in risking everything for Gaza, a place that pulls at Palestinian heartstrings and also has significant resonance with many Israelis and some Egyptians. But beyond that, Gaza is a relatively insignificant area with no particular cultural, historical, religious or strategic significance for Iran, Hezbollah or pretty much anybody else.
But Hezbollah needed to do something in order to retain its revolutionary credentials and maintain its status as the de facto Arab militia leader of the "axis of resistance." It sought to square this circle by initiating a limited confrontation with Israel, ratcheting up cross-border rocket fire but hoping to avoid an all-out conflict with Israel which offered nothing of value for Hezbollah or its Iranian masters.’

(…)

‘Israel had suffered greatly and incurred significant damage, not least to its global reputation (with its leaders now facing arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court). Palestinians in Gaza were utterly devastated, living in a hellscape of death and destruction, with at least 44,000 people killed – over 70 percent of them women and children, according to UN estimates – and almost the entire population displaced, in many cases multiple times. But Iran and its network were relatively unscathed. They pocketed strategic gains at virtually no cost to themselves.’

(…)

‘But as the dust settles, Israelis emerge surrounded by people on all sides, except the Mediterranean Sea, who are outraged at their conduct and determined to keep fighting until Palestinians obtain their basic human and national rights. If this is security, it's hard to imagine what insecurity would possibly look like.’

Read the article here.

So, Iran is once again the winner. As was the case after the rather hapless US-invasion of Iraq in 2003.

The forever-war might feel like security for some Israelis, at least for the current leader.

Safety is an illusion, that might be true for more people than just the Israelis.

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