On France – The Economist:

‘On december 7th, 50 heads of state and government will take their places to celebrate the reopening of Notre Dame, Paris’s 12th-century Gothic cathedral, gutted by fire five years ago but now restored with astonishing speed and loving skill. Donald Trump will be there (Joe Biden, only the second Catholic president of America, sadly will not) to witness France at its best. It has pulled off, on time and to budget, a feat of craftsmanship and renewal that surely no other country could have managed.
Yet that same magnificent France is also mired in a deep political crisis. The government was sacked by parliament on December 4th. Its prime minister, Michel Barnier, had tried to force through his budget for 2025 two days earlier, but met the brutal reality of life without a majority and became the shortest-serving prime minister of the Fifth Republic. In a grubby political compact Marine Le Pen, boss of the hard-right National Rally (rn) party, joined forces with a left-wing alliance dominated by a former Trotskyite, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, to squeeze the life out of France’s centrists.’

(…)

‘The result, in France at least, is gridlock. With no party or alliance close to a majority in the National Assembly, the country now faces the prospect of a series of short-lived minority governments that will struggle to accomplish anything. Because the president, Emmanuel Macron, called his ill-judged snap election only six months ago, France cannot call a fresh election until July next year—and even then, there is no guarantee that any party or coalition will win a majority. Although a government shutdown should at least be avoided, because this year’s budget can probably be rolled over into next year, the situation precludes any reform.
The underlying problem is that most French voters are unwilling to face economic reality. Like other ageing European countries facing competition from America and Asia, France is spending unsustainably. This year its budget deficit is forecast to exceed 6% of gdp. Mr Barnier, at Mr Macron’s behest, was trying to fix that. His package of €40bn ($42bn) in spending cuts and €20bn in tax rises would have brought the shortfall down, though only by a percentage point or so. Even that was too much for the irresponsible right and left, which would rather chase power by fanning popular discontent.’

(…)

‘So far, the financial markets have remained calm. French sovereign-debt yields have ticked up a little, but the government can still borrow for less than a percentage point more than Germany’s can. Contrast that with the spreads of over ten percentage points that Greece faced during the euro-zone crisis. The declaration by Mario Draghi in 2012 that the European Central Bank stood ready to do “whatever it takes” to defend the euro remains in force today.
Yet Mr Draghi’s promise is merely a reprieve from the chronic problems of France and Europe, not a solution. Europe’s economies are not growing fast enough to finance the demands upon them. The euro zone is projected to grow by just 0.8% in 2024. Mr Trump is threatening tariffs on all imports into America of 10% or perhaps 20%, with a lot more for countries he particularly dislikes, such as China, which might lead to a spate of dumping into Europe.’

(…)

‘In the past, voters’ discontent would have led to a healthy change of government. However, France is also a stark warning of where the politics of disappointment leads today. When voters have tired of centrist coalitions or weak minority governments, the only other choice before them is the political extremes. There is a real possibility of an rn-led government in France next year, or even a Le Pen presidency in 2027 when the next election must be called. If Mr Macron stuns France by deciding that his presidency has become so unbearable that he resigns, it might come even sooner.’

Read the article here.

6% of gdp. So far the EU budget rules. Well theory anyway.

You cannot punish France or other countries into oblivion. And Draghi still rules, but for how lang?

Good for all of us that France is still able to borrow relatively cheap.

The politics of disappointment might unravel not only France but the whole European project.

But as I said yesterday to an acquaintance, it’s not 1931 or 1924.

For genocide or ethnic cleansing, you need war. And war is still far away.

We will see whether this statement will be judged as overly naïve, or not.