On God’s will – Farnaz Fassihi and Ronen Bergman in NYT:

‘Iran began to evacuate its military commanders and personnel from Syria on Friday, according to regional officials and three Iranian officials, in a sign of Iran’s inability to help keep President Bashar al-Assad in power as he faces a resurgent rebel offensive.
Among those evacuated to neighboring Iraq and Lebanon were top commanders of Iran’s powerful Quds Forces, the external branch of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, the officials said.’

(…)

‘Evacuations were ordered at the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, and at bases of the Revolutionary Guards, the Iranian and regional officials said. At least some of the embassy staff has departed.’

(…)

‘“Syria is at the verge of collapse and we are watching calmly,” said Ahmad Naderi, an Iranian Parliament member, in a post on social media on Friday. He added that if Damascus fell, Iran would also lose its sway in Iraq and Lebanon, saying, “I don’t understand the reason for this inaction but whatever it is, it’s not good for our country.” The rebel offensive came at a moment of relative weakness for three of Syria’s most important supporters. Iran’s ability to help has been curtailed by its conflict with Israel; Russia's military has been sapped by its invasion of Ukraine; and Hezbollah, which had previously supplied fighters to aid the Assad government’s fight against the Islamic State, has been battered badly by its own war with Israel.’

(…)

‘But in Baghdad on Friday, he [Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi] appeared to make a more ambiguous statement. “We are not fortune tellers,” he said in an interview on Iraqi television. “Whatever is God’s will shall happen, but the resistance will fulfill its duty.”

Read the article here.

Th experts said more than a decade ago that Assad would disappear. I believed them.

Sometimes the fortune tellers are right, it just takes a few years or so for the prediction to become reality.

The question what comes after Assad remains open. I would not put my money on a thriving, liberal democracy. But you can always be surprised.
And what are the consequences for Lebanon?

The structures of power are shifting all over the world. Progress will be made. The illusion of progress after all is indispensable.