On conventional wisdom – Alon Pinkas in Haaretz:
‘There is no doubt that the erosion of Iran's geopolitical power is a net positive strategic gain for Israel, but this is offset by growing hostility around the world, the reemergence of the Palestinian issue, which Israel is neither prepared nor willing to engage in, and an ominous loss of levers in Washington given regional power plays and the identity of the new U.S. president, Donald Trump. These negatives are equally strategic in scope and meaning, so the validity of conventional wisdom can be challenged.’
(…)
‘Gaza has been pulverized and rendered uninhabitable, the Palestinian Authority is weak, ineffectual and dysfunctional, and Israel thinks, or at least the current coalition government thinks, that wide swaths of the West Bank can be annexed in the coming months. All this, particularly Iran's isolation and precariousness, amounts to an Israeli strategic triumph – so goes the conventional wisdom.
But there's a countervailing interpretation to the very same events and processes, and it begins with the Palestinians. The horrid catastrophe of October 7, 2023, and the ensuing war and devastation of Gaza, only exacerbated the Israeli-Palestinian problem. Decimating Hamas is good but doesn't change by one iota the demographic equilibrium between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.
The prevailing mindset in Israel that a Palestinian state is unviable, undesirable and would precipitate more "October 7s" is understandable and natural, but equally myopic. The status quo would also precipitate more October 7s, and certainly a one-state solution too.’
(…)
‘The upside of these developments is that it's up to Israel to shape its environment by crafting smart policies, beginning with the Palestinians. The downside is that such policies cannot and will not be formed under the current prime minister and government.’
Read the article here.
What would be the smart policies that prevent October 7s?
One-state-solution clearly is not the answer.
Two-state-solution appears to be dead on arrival.
The demographic equilibrium is another explosion in the making.
Or maybe? Who knows.
Waiting for exhaustion can be a solution, the problem is that zealots never get exhausted.