On the blink of an eye – The Economist:

‘Russia may not be about to invade other parts of Europe. But it will try to gain sway by redoubling its cyber-attacks, influence operations, assassinations and sabotage. If Mr Putin senses weakness, he could seek to split apart nato by seizing a small piece of territory and daring the allies to respond. He could be ready for that in two to five years. This may sound a long time. In military planning it is the blink of an eye.’

(…)

Ukraine it has suffered almost 1m dead and wounded and, since its gains in the first weeks after the invasion, it has taken less than 1% more of Ukraine’s territory.
Many in the Baltic states, Poland and the Nordic countries go to the other extreme, warning that the threat is bigger than Mr Putin, because Russian imperialism has deep roots. That fear is understandable given their history of being mauled, but it is the wrong way to approach Russia. Not only does it affirm Mr Putin’s message that nato is incurably anti-Russian, but it makes Europe more likely to miss chances for detente.’

(…)

‘Russian tactics are crude and costly, but a sudden small incursion into a natomember would force nato to choose whether to take back lost ground and risk nuclear war. If it did not fight, nato would be broken. In a longer conflict nato could surely repel a first Russian offensive, but would it have the resources for a fifth or sixth? Mr Putin might count it a strategic victory if Mr Trump declined to turn up, even if Russia were pushed back. That is because America’s absence on the battlefield would entrench Russia’s influence over Europe.’

(…)

‘Europe is buying more arms. New figures from sipri, a Swedish think-tank, show that nato, excluding America, increased spending by $68bn, or 19%, in 2022-23. More is needed, but European leaders have still not prepared voters for the sacrifices ahead. They are squabbling over arms contracts. For example, Britain may not be allowed to join a European Union scheme unless it lets euboats fish in its waters.
Work is needed to enhance nato’s unity, especially if America no longer binds it together. It is naive to think that countries like Spain and Portugal will ever fear Russia as Estonia and Poland do. But they face threats to their infrastructure and politics. They also have a vital interest in the eu being spared the dysfunction that would result from greater Russian influence over its eastern members.
Last, Europe needs a Russia policy that looks beyond Ukraine.’

Read the article here.

Occupy a slice of Estonia. See that NATO doesn’t do much. Wait till NATO does.
Finish off the EU.

Side note, Germany will have its own nuclear weapons in a few decades or so. Power is going toi shift everywhere, also within Europe.

But maybe Putin is not up to the gamble of risking a nuclear war. After all, he has children.

Or maybe, he is up to it.