Leverage

Government

On a new regional order – Amos Harel in Haaretz:

‘For the first time in a long while, the direction of things is clear and intentions are no longer obscured by contradictory declarations. U.S. President Donald Trump is aiming to leverage what he describes as the great victory over Iran to impose a new regional order in the Middle East.’

(…)

‘The far-right elements in his government also smell danger. After clashing with Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Eyal Zamir earlier this week over the objectives in the Gaza war, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir called on his colleague, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, to forge a united front to thwart the deal.
In contrast, the public sentiment in Israel is in a different direction. Even after a slight rise in Netanyahu's popularity after the Iran offensive and the resulting cease-fire, all the polls consistently indicate that a strong majority of the Israeli public support ending the war and securing the hostages' release – even at a steep cost. Against this backdrop, both opposition leader Yair Lapid and MK Benny Gantz have offered the government a safety net in Knesset voting to ensure that the deal passes.’

(…)

‘Behind the scenes, Trump is dangling more bait for Netanyahu: the possibility of extending the Abraham Accords to more countries. Reports about secret talks between Israel and Syria have emerged in recent days. Extensive coordination is indeed taking place behind the scenes, which could help the new regime in Damascus reduce the territory that Israel captured from it last December.
Even so, it's hard to see how Israeli-Syrian relations can occur without Israel's readiness to return all the territory it captured in the Golan Heights – a demand every Syrian president since 1967 has insisted on and one Israel rejects outright.
In the longer term, Trump aspires to reshape the region under American influence, and to bring about Saudi-Israeli normalization. Such achievements would also ensure another of his major goals: winning the Nobel Peace Prize already this year.’

(…)

‘Trump's less friendly side was experienced by Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whom the American leader never liked from the beginning. Zelenskyy did everything Trump told him to, including signing a generous agreement to transfer natural resources to the United States. Nevertheless, Washington is now holding up a shipment of vital defensive systems, thus leaving the Ukrainians vulnerable to missile and drone attacks from Russia.
Who knows – maybe there's a quiet lesson hiding here for Israel, too.’

(…)

‘Zamir told the cabinet and the security cabinet on several occasions that Hamas is beaten, under siege, and wants to end the war. From his perspective, the war in Iran also improved the situation in the Palestinian arena, because the regime in Tehran will be hard-pressed to support Hamas directly anytime in the near future. Additionally, the close ties between the United States and Qatar (which helped bring about the cease-fire with Iran) could spur the Qataris to get results with Hamas as well.
Throughout Operation Gideon's Chariots – the present, deeply controversial, campaign in the Gaza Strip – Zamir often clashed with the far-right ministers resisting actions he believes would endanger the hostages. In one meeting, Ben-Gvir accused him of being ready to sacrifice lives of soldiers and civilians only to save the lives of ten captives (even though there are actually 20 living captives).’

(…)

‘The confrontation between the sides became vociferous, and Zamir hurled at Smotrich: "Tell the truth – you gave up on the hostages."’

Read the article here.

Smotrich is not the only one who gave up on the hostages.

Also, Trump is in such a hurry to get the Nobel Peace Prize that he is willing to sacrifice Ukraine.

But Trump has leverage, the only one who has that and who is capable of steering Netanyahu in his direction.

The powerlessness of the EU is partly also lack of real interest. As long as the refugees don’t disturb the EU too much, bloodshed on the Balkan, in Africa, in the Middle East is deemed acceptable.

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