On elastic materials – Zvi Bar'el in Haaretz:
‘It is difficult to predict how the road to an Israel-Hamas cease-fire, laden with challenges, will be traversed by both sides. The technical arrangements required to carry out the first phase require more negotiations, which began on Friday in Egypt, and it is difficult to predict how the talks will end.
The plan's main stage, the transfer of power in Gaza to an external administrative body, which may rest on a multinational force, will require many more complex agreements before it can be implemented. For now, this body only exists on paper.’
(…)
‘But Trump has already brought forth some powerful tectonic shifts. By adopting the positions of the leading Arab states, headed by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt, he has given them bargaining power that surpasses Israel's.
Understanding Israel's security needs and its willingness to open the gates of hell to destroy Hamas has lost its primacy in favor of the Arab countries' interests. Trump has already begun to interpret Israel's reasons for continuing the war as political needs that should not oblige or interest the American administration.’
(…)
‘Instead of formulating a "letter of guarantees" or making airy statements about a future end to the war, Trump ended the war himself, thus scrubbing any need to provide guarantees.
It's not yet clear whether Trump's order to stop the shooting was coordinated in advance with the Arab leaders or Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whose differences in the final stages of the negotiations intensified, and who even took credit for Trump's decision, thus paving the way for Hamas' adoption of the plan. But its diplomatic result is already substantial, and its impact is far wider than Gaza's borders.’
(…)
‘On the surface, Trump's plan offers a comprehensive outline that includes the release of the hostages and the Palestinian prisoners, along with a Gaza administration plan. The president's cease-fire proposal also neutralizes Hamas and establishes a vague path for establishing a Palestinian state.
In practice, these are two independent plans. The release of the hostages and the entire first stage are not dependent on the establishment of an Arab or Palestinian administration for Gaza or implementation of the Blair plan and establishment of a "provisional authority to administer Gaza".’
(…)
‘Hamas is expected to try and leverage Trump's decision to demand that Israel hold its fire and the Arab states' support of his plan to demand amendments that will secure its place. Israel may then discover that the big, clumsy Trump is made of elastic materials that allow him spectacular flexibility.’
Read the article here.
Israel lost the war. It became a pariah, and it will take some time to end the pariah-status.
By the way, losing is not always a bad thing. Winning a war can be deadly, see: zu Tode siegen.
Ending the war and returning the hostages is a good thing. Trump can take credit for this.
As was argued many times before, the Gazans were waiting for Trump and the Israelis also. European countries are merely extras.
Phase 2 might be Oslo, or not even Oslo. Trump is made of elastic materials indeed, which is a very polite way of saying that the US under Trump has become rather untrustworthy.
But a true empire will never become a pariah. The servants will please their master with all their minds and bodies.
After the Nobel prize, if not this year next year, Trump will be distracted by other things. Other countries.
Hamas won’t disappear.
As to peace, let's wait also for Russia and Ukraine.
The consequences of all this for Jewish people outside Israel will be discussed another time.
If the multinational force will come to Gaza, I doubt it, it will be at best UNIFIL all over again. More probably, it will be an open invitation to more bloodshed, corruption, prostitution et cetera.
But as Malaparte noted already in 43 in Naples: freedom is made of corruption, prostitution and some killing in between.