On 2068 - Zvi Bar'el in Haaretz:

‘"I said that we'll change the face of the Middle East. Syria isn't the same Syria, Lebanon isn't the same Lebanon, and the head of the axis, Iran, also isn't the same Iran," said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in December 2024, summarizing the "new" Middle East.
Five months later, he again claimed, "In the war's 600 days, we've actually changed the face of the Middle East." He said that again on the eve of his trip to Washington in July 2025 and again on Saturday, declaring, "From victory to victory, together we've changed the face of the Middle East."’

(…)

‘American presidents, both Democrats and Republicans, were sure that they held the key to change in their pockets. In 2006, five years after the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan and three years after the invasion of Iraq, President George W. Bush told the UN General Assembly, "We're seeing that bright future begin to take root in the broader Middle East… Five years ago, Afghanistan was ruled by the brutal Taliban regime... Now this seat is held by the freely elected government of Afghanistan, which is represented today by President Karzai. Five years ago, Iraq's seat in this body was held by a dictator who killed his citizens, invaded his neighbors... Now Iraq's seat is held by a democratic government..."’

(…)

‘President Barack Obama was confident that the entire Middle East would change for the better following the Arab Spring revolutions and the toppling of President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia and President Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen. Tunisia is now ruled by a dictator, who was originally elected in a democratic process, the Houthis now control 60 percent of Yemen's population and a third of the country, and it is no coincidence that Netanyahu avoided listing them as Israel's successes in the region.’

(…)

‘Assad was a murderous president who was aided by Iran and Hezbollah to slaughter his people in exchange for his help. But Israel wasn't particularly concerned by the massacres in Syria or by the millions of Syrian refugees, nor was Trump's heart moved by the atrocities, because in practice, Assad was "good" for Israel.
Syria's skies were open to the Israel Air Force, Assad never declared war on Israel, and he even prevented the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps' Quds force from operating against it. A "strategic alliance" was formed with Assad's Syria, under which Russia guaranteed the regime's existence and security and gave Israel an almost unrestricted work visa.’

(…)

‘But the practical test for the Lebanese government is still ahead and passing it won't be easy. Eliminating Hezbollah's leadership did not remove the organization from Lebanon's political fabric. Its representatives are still in the government and parliament and the threat of civil war hangs over the country if the government decides to confront Hezbollah by force.’

(…)

‘Conversely, even after the strike, the success of which is still undergoing evaluation, the nuclear threat has not been removed and will still be a "hot front" so long as no agreement is reached that will guarantee supervision and control over Iran's nuclear program. Needless to say, the original nuclear agreement signed in 2015, which Trump unilaterally broke under Netanyahu's massive influence, would have ensured that Iran's nuclear program would be limited to minimal enrichment through the end of 2025 and be subject to restrictions and intensive supervision at least until 2030.’

(…)

‘On May 15, 2008, on Israel's 60th Independence Day, U.S. President George W. Bush gave a rousing, optimistic address to the Knesset in which he fantasized about the "new" Middle East.
"Israel will be celebrating its 120th anniversary as one of the world's great democracies, a secure and flourishing homeland for the Jewish people. The Palestinian people will have the homeland they have long dreamed of and deserved – a democratic state that is governed by law, and respects human rights, and rejects terror. From Cairo to Riyadh to Baghdad and Beirut, people will live in free and independent societies... Iran and Syria will be peaceful nations... Al Qaida and Hezbollah and Hamas will be defeated, as Muslims across the region recognize the emptiness of the terrorists' vision and the injustice of their cause."
A wonderful vision; we just have to pass the time until 2068.’

Read the article here.

2068, fair enough. We’ll wait.

In the meantime, I mostly agree with this analysis. The Middle East hasn’t changed much.

Hamas is not defeated, Iran is not defeated, Hezbollah is not defeated, setbacks yes, some more severe than others.

But besides all this, there is no reason to be cynical about the deal between Israel and Hamas. Trump did accomplish something. Let’s see when the Nobel is coming his way. Maybe he’ll calm down a bit after the Nobel.

Now that would be a breakthrough.