The Economist: ‘When Donald Trump signed a preliminary peace deal with Iran last month, he bragged that it “achieves everything we set out to accomplish”. The Gulf war would end and the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Less than a month later, the agreement looks to be unravelling: fighting has resumed and traffic through the strait has collapsed.’

And: ‘Tanker traffic is at its lowest level since May 25th, says Kpler, a ship-tracker. Just 11 vessels transited the strait on July 12th, down from 36 a week earlier, according to Windward, another such firm. At first, oil markets shrugged off the fighting. Now they look concerned.’

As well: ‘His [Trump’s] third option is to look elsewhere for help. Meaningful support will not be forthcoming. A multilateral mission to secure the strait does exist on paper.’

On paper. We’ll have another deal soon. And some unraveling afterwards. Neither peace, nor war.

(a sf 2181)