On uncertainties and Lord of the Rings - virologist Christian Drosten interviewed in Der Spiegel (Rafaela von Bredow und Veronika Hackenbroch).

'DER SPIEGEL: Then Interior Minister Horst Seehofer was incorrect when he said in a talk show that you were initially opposed to shutting down the schools, only to voice support for the idea the very next day in a conference call with Germany's state governors?

Drosten: Let me tell you what happened. For one thing, a number of scientists took part in that conference. And our message was simple: We simply can't know how dangerous schools are as a potential source of infection.

DER SPIEGEL: And where did your change of opinion come from?

Drosten: I really did think that we could leave the schools open and start by banning large gatherings. But on the evening before the conference, a scientist from the U.S. wrote me and she said: Be careful Drosten, you are wrong, the schools play a special role and here are the arguments. She explained it to me and attached a study, and it was exactly this scientific knowledge that I shared in the conference of state leaders. There wasn't anything more to it.

DER SPIEGEL: Do you mean to say that you had no influence on political decisions?

Drosten: I do believe that my podcast is closely monitored in ministerial departments. I mean, how can I, as a researcher, make my message any more transparent than I do in the podcast?

DER SPIEGEL: You even used your study on viral loads to provide recommendations to political leaders. It explicitly states that you warned against reopening schools and daycare centers.

Drosten: If you read the entire study, then you will find a detailed list of the uncertainties. In that context, there is a sentence that was formulated extremely carefully saying that, according to the data we currently have at our disposal, as uncertain as it may be, we cannot with a clear conscience recommend that schools be reopened without restrictions.

DER SPIEGEL: The media psychologist Frank Schwab compared you in DER SPIEGEL with Gandalf from "Lord of the Rings" or Obi Wan Kenobi in "Star Wars:" You aren't fighting on the front lines, but you are standing alongside the heroes, sharing your experience and wisdom. Is that an accurate comparison?

Drosten: Who is that? I don't know those characters.

DER SPIEGEL: Seriously?

Drosten: I've never read "Lord of the Rings" and I've never seen "Star Wars." And regarding my role as a political adviser, I'm neither the captain nor the coxswain. At most, perhaps, a navigator. I read the maps.

DER SPIEGEL: How will things continue from here?

Drosten: We are really in a good situation at the moment. The shutdown has largely been lifted and more and more things are opening – and there hasn't been an immediate flourishing of the pandemic. It could very well be that the virus largely leaves us alone for a time.

DER SPIEGEL: For how long?

Drosten: Not forever. But perhaps we can avoid a second shutdown. In the beginning, we definitely needed the entire palette of measures because we didn't know for sure what would help. Now, we have a better understanding of the virus and we know more about how it spreads.

DER SPIEGEL: What about schools and daycare centers? Would you like to see them open now as well?

Drosten: It's clear that we have to open them, and they can't really be opened halfway. Even if we still don't know for sure how contagious children are. And then we have to see what tools can be used to prevent a big outbreak there in its early phase – an outbreak that is otherwise certain to come.

DER SPIEGEL: No singing in church. No cruises. No big parties. Is that our lives for the next several months?

Drosten: Parties could be a possibility if they are held outside and not too many people are involved. One could certainly imagine such a thing this summer.

DER SPIEGEL: And then a vaccine will solve the problem next spring?

Drosten: I am confident that by then there won't just be a single vaccine. The process is kind of in the background in Germany, but we are on an extremely good path toward a vaccine.

DER SPIEGEL: But before it arrives, we will have winter – and the virus will return?

Drosten: Yes, it is relatively clear that temperature has a certain effect. The question is: Where does that effect come from? It is probably from people gathering in closed rooms in the winter. But perhaps we have the opportunity over the summer to prepare by developing guidelines, planning a new testing regime and thinking about how to trace developing outbreaks. And we can already begin preparing for the fact that there won't be any congresses and conferences this fall and winter either.

DER SPIEGEL: Otherwise there could be a second wave?

Drosten: There is theoretically a possibility that we can forego a second wave. Because of the way the illness spreads: We have just a few people who infect many others …

DER SPIEGEL: … so-called super-spreaders.

Drosten: Exactly. And such an infection event is easier to control than a similar outbreak that is spreading under the radar, like we had in the beginning. When it becomes clear where such an outbreak is underway, we immediately have to take strict measures.

DER SPIEGEL: How? By testing everybody who has a bit of a cough?

Drosten: No, it is more a matter of understanding where and in what situations outbreaks are essentially a foregone conclusion. And how we can keep an eye on them. Confronting outbreaks has also become easier. There are new calculations that very clearly show that when an outbreak is identified, it doesn't really help to start testing all the possible contact people. No matter what, we'll always be too late. Inevitably. Instead, all contact persons should simply be quarantined, and not for 14 days anymore, but for just a bit longer than a week. The incubation and contagious periods – it's all quite a bit shorter than we thought in the beginning.

DER SPIEGEL: What are the most significant questions that still haven't been answered about this pandemic?

Drosten: The most obvious one is why children don't show any symptoms. It doesn't seem to be because they have a lower viral load in their throats. I also don't believe it's a plausible explanation that they have fewer of the receptors that are attacked by the virus in their nasal mucous membranes. And then, of course: What vaccine is the best?

DER SPIEGEL: What exactly do you mean?

Drosten: A vaccine should work in small doses and it should be easy to produce. And then, which vaccine should be used once the pandemic has passed? Do we have to vaccinate in perpetuity?'

Read the article here.

An argument against an app in the fight against the virus: we will always be too late.

Ten days quarantine is enough. Take note of that.

And above all: citizens have to learn to live with many uncertainties without giving in to the temptation of conspiracy theories.
Old-fashioned religion has never been completely benign, and often resembled contemporary conspiracy theories, but the conspiracy theory as we know it is also an offspring of secularization. Good to remember.

And maybe the virus will leave us alone for a while. Just for such a sentence I do have mild feelings of love for Mr. Drosten.