On nuts – Zvi Bar’el in Haaretz:

‘Details of the negotiations between Iran and six world powers on a new nuclear agreement have not been leaked, but they have already spawned two assessments. According to one, that of outgoing President Hassan Rohani and his negotiating team, the “principal issues surrounding the renewal of the nuclear agreement have been settled and now the sanctions can be removed in their entirety,” as Rohani told a cabinet meeting Wednesday. His chief of staff, Mahmoud Vaezi, went one step further and said the United States is prepared to lift all sanctions on oil trade and 1,044 additional sanctions on Iran, including on maritime transport and insurance.
But Western representatives say that despite progress, there’s still a long way to go, as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this week. “There are still some nuts to crack,” German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said Wednesday. It isn’t clear which “nuts” he was referring to or how long the negotiations are expected to continue – whether it will be “weeks and not months,” as Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said, or only a few days.’

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‘For months, Iran has been preparing an inventory of crude oil that it is storing in tanks on land and sea, as well as in storage reservoirs in China and India. Estimates are that it has between 70 million and 200 million barrels of oil available that it can get to its customers within 10 to 20 days.
Moreover, in recent weeks, it has significantly increased its oil production beyond the 2.4 million barrels it exports daily. These numbers make it clear that Iran is preparing for the lifting of sanctions on its oil sales and the signing of a new nuclear agreement. To this we can add the talks Iran has been holding with oil importers from India, South Korea and China in anticipation of signing new oil contracts, along with the discussions being held by the OPEC countries on organizing for Iran’s reentry into the market.’

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‘The West believes that Iran’s recent failed attempt to launch a satellite into space – the fourth failure in a row and the second this month – is one reason Iran is refusing to put the missile program on the negotiating table. The missiles on which Iran has attempted to launch the satellites are probably two-stage Simorgh missiles that can also be used for military purposes and as a base for intercontinental missiles.
According to Western reports, the country’s Khomeini launch site is already preparing for another attempt, which, if it succeeds, will not only be a scientific achievement for Iran, but will also testify to its advanced ballistic capabilities. But even if the launch is unsuccessful, it makes clear that Iran will continue to develop missiles, which it will justify by citing its quest to reach space.
The election of Ebrahim Raisi as president adds to the concerns regarding Tehran’s military plans in the ballistic field. Raisi, supported by the Revolutionary Guards, is a staunch opponent of any negotiations with the United States and even called for former President Donald Trump to be prosecuted for the assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. He will probably have to swallow the nuclear deal, as it was Khamenei’s decision, and the supreme leader had banned criticism of the deal on the eve of its signing in 2015. Khamenei’s directive remains in force regarding the new deal as well, and Raisi said during his election campaign that he would support the deal “as long as it serves Iran’s interests,” even more so if it’s signed after he takes office, providing him with needed legitimacy.’

Read the article here.

There are nuts to crack – there are always nuts to crack – but there will be a new nuclear agreement with Iran and six world powers.
Sanctions will be lifted, Iran will try to advance its weapons (missiles), Israel, with or without the US will continue its not so secret war against Iran’s nuclear program, and Saudi Arabia won’t hesitate to go for a nuclear bomb, as soon as Iran has one. No Shia bomb without a Sunni bomb.

Interestingly enough, the fight against atomic weapons is not sexy anymore, as it once was (in the eighties), now climate and certain minorities are sexy.