On a war that might still not happen – Anshel Pfeffer in Haaretz:

‘For over two decades now, Vladimir Putin has safeguarded his rule over Russia by guaranteeing power and riches to those close to his Kremlin and providing the Russian people with a sense of stability and pride that Russia has remained a world power, after years of chaos following the Soviet Union's collapse. Embarking on an all-out war with Ukraine, which will trigger unprecedented Western financial sanctions, will undoubtedly have an impact on the elite he has protected. They enjoy their wealth mainly in the West – it is where they hold their assets, educate their children and park their yachts. They will be loath to replace the French Riviera with the beaches of Crimea.’

(…)

‘It’s challenging to assess how far Putin is willing to go to return Ukraine once and for all to Russia’s imperial orbit because access to the Russian leader has become extremely limited in the past two years since the start of the pandemic. There are rumors that he is suffering from an illness that prevents him from being vaccinated and is surrounded by a cabal of ultra-nationalists pushing him to take risks.
Putin’s inner circle has obviously changed in recent years. Gone are the relatively young technocrats, like former prime minister Dmitry Medvedev, who aspired to be high-tech entrepreneurs. They’ve been replaced by older KGB alumni, like Putin himself, who are motivated by deep frustration at what they see as a Western invasion, not just of Russia’s neighborhood, but of its values as well.’

(…)

‘One of the problems is that Putin has so far gained nothing by his massive buildup of military force. Instead of weakening his hated enemy NATO, the Western alliance has rediscovered its purpose. Nation-members who may have previously harbored doubts of NATO’s relevance are no longer doubtful. It probably won’t help save Ukraine, but other countries near Russia’s borders who are not NATO members, like Finland, are inching closer to the alliance.
The question of what Putin actually wants has become a cliché, but it remains true: Until he fires the opening shot or begins drawing down his forces on Ukraine’s borders, no one has a clear idea of what he is expecting to achieve and what he is prepared to risk.’

Read the article here.

No, war is not inevitable, as long as it hasn’t begun, but you cannot mass more than hundred thousand troops near the Ukrainian border and have them there forever. Even a few months is extremely long for such an amount of material and troops.

Withdrawing the troops without significant concessions from the US (mainly from the US) would be disastrous fur Putin.

He might start a war, not because he believes that it will be the solution to most of his problems, but because in the game of poker that he was playing a war might be the best face-saving option he has.

Never underestimate the desire for face-saving gestures, even if these gestures might bring us close to another world war.