Arnon Grunberg

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On hybrid warfare – Anshel Pfeffer in Haaretz:

‘Much of the reporting, both by the media and intelligence services, on the massive Russian build-up near Ukraine’s borders is misleading. Potentially, the Russians have over 100 battalions ready for a ground maneuver into Ukraine, with the support of hundreds of fighter jets and attack helicopters, artillery and rockets, as well as warships off the coast. But the clear interest of Russian President Vladimir Putin is to use as little of this military force as possible. Just by concentrating all of these units in staging areas, in full view of the cameras, he has achieved the desired effect without firing a single shot.’

(…)

‘A large-scale Russian ground invasion, of the sort the Biden administration and Western intelligence organizations have been warning of for weeks, does indeed match the scale of forces positioned around Ukraine. But it doesn’t fit the doctrine of hybrid warfare developed and practiced by Russia over the past two decades, which relies on propaganda, psychological warfare and cyberattacks as much as on conventional firepower.’

(…)

‘It’s hard to escape the impression that Western politicians and at least some of the intelligence and military experts briefing them are still thinking in terms of the wars of the previous century when assessing Putin’s intentions. The age in which the mass mobilization of troops inevitably leads to war, as it did in 1914 when the lights went out all over Europe, ended when armies began to use modern communications.
Neither are “false-flag” attacks – like the one staged by the Nazis at Gleiwitz (now Gliwice) on the border with Poland in 1939 – useful anymore as a pretext for an invasion. If the Russians had tried something like that in 2022, it would have been dismantled and exposed on social media within minutes. Likewise, the other World War II clichés trotted out such as “Russia won’t invade before the mud freezes” – as if nowadays the Russians don’t have enough wide-tracked combat vehicles or Ukraine lacks asphalt roads.’

(…)

‘And even if all of the Russian units return to base, it will continue wherever Putin chooses to keep undermining Ukraine’s fragile democracy. Whether or not he chooses to launch an all-out war, the existence of a pro-Western democracy in Ukraine is insufferable to him and he will keep trying to snuff it out.’

Read the article here

The continuation of hybrid warfare, that seems to be Putin’s strategy for now. He is betting on all kinds of skirmishes that will strengthen his position.
Low-intensity conflict with the believable threat of high-intensity conflict, now there you have an endgame.

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