On Iran – Zvi Bar’el in Haaretz:

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‘It is now expected that the nuclear accord will be signed this week after representatives of the negotiating countries return to Vienna following consultations and in the wake of “productive” talks held by the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, on Saturday in Tehran. In those discussions, there was apparent agreement on a way forward to solve some of the monitoring issues that have yet to be resolved, such as visits to locations that are not declared as nuclear sites but where there is evidence that enriched uranium has been in use.
Iran has demanded that the file on these sites be closed, but the United States and its partners have not yielded. It seems, however, that they have agreed not to let the issue delay the signing of the accord – on the condition that agreement on the matter be reached at a later date.’

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‘Another pending controversy relates to guarantees that Iran wants from the United States to ensure that Washington doesn’t withdraw from the accord in the future. After Iran recognized that President Joe Biden could not commit future U.S. administrations and that Congress would not accede to Iran’s request for a binding decision on this matter, the two sides are trying to find a compromise that would satisfy Iran.’

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‘It’s worth noting that Iran’s most important strategic partner is China, with which it signed a 20-year strategic pact, in the course of which China will invest $400 billion in infrastructure and the development of oil and gas fields, in exchange for oil and gas that Iran is selling the Chinese at reduced prices. Iran will also allow China to build ports and bases on its territory.
And Russia has an important role in implementing the nuclear accord since it is the country slated to receive the surplus enriched uranium that Iran has produced since 2019, the year in which it began violating the accord, following America’s withdrawal from the agreement a year earlier.
Russia and China are also due to help Iran to develop a nuclear energy program for peaceful purposes, within the limitations of the accord. If Russia decides not to sign the accord without the written American guarantees that it is demanding, Western countries could take over its role in receiving the surplus enriched uranium and China could continue developing Iran’s nuclear reactors.

Russia would not want to be excluded from the picture or to lose its Iranian leverage, even if it doesn’t get those American guarantees. If there’s a link between its invasion of Ukraine and the nuclear accord, it lies in the fact that Russia’s ability to dictate Iran’s moves is eroding, while the opportunities the West can offer Iran are only beginning to come into focus.’

Read the article here.

The side effects are often the most important effects.
The rehabilitation of Iran as side effect of the war in Ukraine. With the West and China fighting to be Iran’s favorite trade partner.

What this means for Syria is unclear yet. But I believe that the West prefers Assad to stay. Better a mass murderer you know than a mass murderer you don’t know.