On humiliation – Anshel Pfeffer in Haaretz:

‘In ongoing talks between Russian and Ukrainian representatives, both directly and through various mediators including Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, an outline of a deal is emerging. The terms of the deal are far from complete, but they include a cease-fire and a partial Russian withdrawal from some of the areas it has invaded over the past three weeks. In return, the annexed peninsula of Crimea is to be recognized as sovereign Russian territory, there will be a special autonomous status for the pro-Russian enclaves in the Donbas, and Ukraine will agree not to seek membership in NATO or the European Union and give Russia a veto on its foreign policy. There will also be limits on the size of Ukraine’s military, in exchange for security guarantees from Western powers. It would be a humiliating outcome for the Ukrainians who have fought so bravely, but it would stop the destruction of their country.’

(…)

‘Diplomats involved in trying to mediate between the two sides have said in recent days that both Putin and Zelenskyy will find it very difficult to confront the public in their respective countries with any concessions. Zelenskyy also has to contend with the expectations of the public in the West, which wants him to continue Ukraine’s fight against Russia, and also agree to sign a deal. But it is still far from clear that there is a deal to be signed.
Zelenskyy has said repeatedly that he knows that Ukraine is not going to join the NATO alliance. This hasn’t mollified Putin. Even if Ukraine changes its constitution and commits to complete neutrality between Russia and the West, it will remain in Putin’s eyes a fake entity, unworthy of real independence. He is prepared to see it remain separate from Russia only if it is clearly a vassal state.
Ukraine could become a “neutral” country like Finland or Sweden. It may even rebuild itself after the terrible carnage and destruction of this war and go on to prosper. But as long as it remains independent and has a democratically-elected government, it will prefer to be aligned with the West and to avoid the Kremlin’s interference in its internal affairs. And as long as that is the case, Putin will not tolerate its existence.’

Read the article here.

So Ukraine is going to become the Palestinian Authority, no the Ukrainian Authority?

Well, it’s not going to be that bad. Kiev is not Ramallah, and Russia is not Israel.

This outcome is not ideal, the outcome in Bosnia-Herzegovina was not ideal, but the continuation of war there would have been worse.

A face saving way out for Putin looks more or less what Pfeffer is describing here above.

A Russian veto on Ukrainian foreign policy sounds awful, but in reality it is more common than we think. Small countries have not much room to define their foreign policy. As I said before, sovereignty is an outdated concept for many countries. Take the sovereignty of The Netherlands for example, economically part of Germany, for all its military adventures dependent on the US.

Covid gave the nation states the illusion of sovereignty. (In our nation state no lockdown or only from 10 pm to 4 am.) And there are tax laws. Big companies come to our nation state and pay no taxes.

That’s the sovereignty that’s left for most states.