On intelligence and the lack of it - Amos Harel in Haaretz:

‘After more than a weeklong lull, terror returned to central Israel on Thursday. At least two civilians were killed and another ten wounded in a shooting attack on Dizengoff Street, in the middle of Tel Aviv. Overnight, police were still conducting a large hunt after the suspect. He was identified eventually in the early hours of Friday hiding near a mosque in Jaffa, and was shot and killed by a special police and Shin Bet force. The terrorist is a Palestinian from the northern West Bank.
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett held a security meeting at military headquarters on Thursday evening. The attack, the fourth since March 22, already appears to be part of a lengthy terror offensive. Even if no guiding hand has yet been identified, this fundamentally changes the security and diplomatic reality between Israel and the Palestinians. It seems that the accumulation of attacks will force the government to impose movement restrictions between the territories and Israel, contradicting the government’s declared intention.
Bennett's situation is further complicated by the dual movement of encroaching political and security concerns. On top of the most serious security crisis in a year, the Bennett-Lapid government is facing its most serious political challenge yet. The resignation of the coalition whip, Yamina MK Idit Silman, has left the coalition with the same number of seats as the opposition, creating a 60-60 stalemate. This reality will make it very difficult for the government to function long-term. In fact, it seems that Bennett is being held hostage, not only by every last Knesset backbencher, but also by the next terrorist.’

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‘None of the attacks were preceded by a detailed intelligence alert. Security forces are deeply disturbed by the lack of intelligence, as it makes it harder for them to home in on specific threats and forces them to cast as wide a net as possible – without intelligence and with dubious efficacy.’

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‘The past two weeks have seen dozens of West Bank Palestinians arrested on suspicion of terrorist activity. Nearly 20 Israeli Arabs have also been arrested on general suspicions of sympathizing with ISIS. Defense Minister Benny Gantz signed off on a Shin Bet request to detain additional individuals suspected of sympathizing with ISIS without charges: An Israeli Arab and seven Palestinians from East Jerusalem.
The emerging picture, against the backdrop of the holy month of Ramadan, depicts a decentralized assault led by lone wolves and small, logical cells from the West Bank. In at least two cases, the attacks were also pioneered by Israeli Arabs who were radical Islamists.’

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‘In any case, it’s clear that the country has already taken a first step into the same paralyzing corridor of elections that brought the government to an almost complete standstill in 2019-2021. Five election campaigns in three-something years would not only be a national record, it would push Israel to levels of dysfunction that characterize countries like Italy in the 1980s and 1990s. The mechanisms of Italian government struggled to allocate resources or plan ahead while the politicians above them were preoccupied with survival.’

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‘This is not the only danger facing for Israel domestically and externally if the political picture becomes more complicated. On Wednesday, Moshe Klughaft, who has worked as a strategic adviser for both Netanyahu and Bennett, was interviewed on Army Radio. Asked what he would recommend to Bennett under the new circumstances, he replied without hesitation: Attack Iran. Klughaft, like some of his professional colleagues, is constantly resetting the bar of cynicism in Israel. Let’s hope that Klughaft is playing games with his interviewers and that Bennett, as he has shown in the past, is less of a cynic.
And yet, we're back to the good old days of House of Cards and Wag the Dog. A war that will without any doubt cost the lives of thousands of people, including in Israel, is suddenly a reasonable scenario that needs to be examined seriously merely for its political benefits. May the good Lord watch over us.’

Read the article here.

The idea that lone wolfs could be detected by security services was popular, but turned out to be not true, or at least partly true. The solution for the lone wolf attacker was simple, don’t use social media.

See also my article in Dutch in de Volkskrant, which was partly about this matter. Read it here.

Further, yes Wag the Dog is back, the movie and the idea have never gone away.

But indeed, if Israel might think of attacking Iran – one of the side effects of the war in Ukraine is that it made the atomic bomb popular, you want to have some immunity from the West, get an atomic bomb first – only a God can save us. Well, that is an exaggeration, in any case such a war will go beyond the Middle East. Maybe not purely militarily but it will make the world tremble. And call me a coward, for a trembling world I like to go to the movies or read a novel.