Arnon Grunberg

Statement

Applause

On Yemen – Zvi Bar’el in Haaretz:

‘Last Thursday morning, after a night of discussions, consultations, and mainly – arm-wrestling and threats, President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi of Yemen announced that he would no longer be president, and would transfer all his powers to the presidential council formed that night. With that, he ended a tenure that began in 2012, shortly after his predecessor, Ali Abdullah Saleh, was ousted in the Arab Spring revolutions after 22 years in office.
Hadi’s ouster and the establishment of the presidential council have already been won applause by the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Some see this as the beginning of the end of the tragic civil war that began in 2014 and has killed about 400,000 people so far.’

(…)
‘Even so, when a change in government follows a roughly week-old cease-fire that has held, with the exception of some local violations, and when Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are the patrons of this change, the optimism isn’t completely groundless.
The details of the deal concocted by Saudi Arabia and the UAE haven’t been published in full. But going by statements issued by all the parties concerned, Hadi and his deputy, Gen. Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, will be replaced by a council comprised of eight senior officials and will be headed by Rashad al-Alimi, a former interior minister in Hadi’s government. Its main goal will be to conduct negotiations with the Houthis on a permanent cease-fire and a political solution to the war.
Behind the scenes of the negotiations, apparently a Saudi-style pressure campaign was conducted. Some reports say it including the “abduction” of Hadi’s two sons and their incarceration in Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s palace, effectively turning them into hostages to pressure their father to sign the agreement and announce his resignation.’

(…)

‘The urgency of this political upheavel originated in recent Houthi attacks on Saudi and Emirati targets, even as Saudi Arabia and Iran have been discussing renewing bilateral relations. Pressure has also been mounting on U.S. President Joe Biden to put the Houthis back on America’s list of foreign terrorist organizations. Biden and his advisers for their part suspect that might undermine the Houthis’ willingness to compromise and would prevent Western countries from discussing Yemen’s reconstruction with any new government formed pursuant to an agreement if the Houthis were part of it.
Another question is Iran’s position and its influence over what the Houthis do. Until now, it was thought that Iran was behind the Houthis’ attacks on the Gulf states and that it could dictate how the Houthi leadership conducted negotiations with Riyadh and the Yemeni government. But in light of the recent attacks, which hinder Iran’s plan to repair its relations with the Gulf states, it seems that unlike Hezbollah, the Houthis have their own agenda, which isn’t necessarily subordinate to Iranian diktats.’

(…)

‘Ending the war is also a vital Saudi and Emirati interest. The war was launched by Prince Mohammed in 2015, shortly after his father became king of Saudi Arabia. But it is one of the crown prince’s most resounding failures. His army, despite being well-equipped with American weapons, failed for seven years to achieve military victory. And around two and a half years ago, the anti-Houthi coalition he forged fell apart when the UAE abandoned it and withdrew most of its forces from Yemen. Now, he too has evidently reached the conclusion that it’s time to cut his losses.’

Read the article here.

It can take a long time (and 400,000 dead people) before you realize that you have to cut your losses.
And another lesson: how to pressure leaders into political solutions? Kidnap their family members.

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