Arnon Grunberg

Obligaton

Savior

On the return of the cold war doctrine – Der Spiegel:

‘America has a plan, and it has a goal. In Europe, on the other hand, the main concern you hear is that we could somehow be drawn into this war. And instead of new ideas, you just get the assurance that Europe won’t go it alone. Europe has neither a plan nor a goal, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz only seems to take steps when he is pushed to.’

(…)

‘There is no way of predicting how long the U.S. will continue to be willing to play the role of global savior. The next presidential elections will be held in 2024. By then, at the latest, Europe will have to have begun building a strong defense and deterrence regime against the next potential aggression from Vladimir Putin, who could remain in power for a very long time to come.
The timing for that step is favorable: Emmanuel Macron just won a difficult re-election in France, and he can now dedicate himself to a project that is very near and dear to his heart: Europe. Scholz set the right tone with his recent "watershed moment" speech in which he announced major new spending for Germany’s armed forces, but he will now have to follow these words up with actions. And he will have to confront some hard truths, such as the fact that Germany hasn’t done a very good job of fulfilling its NATO obligations or ensuring that it is capable of defending itself.’

(…)

‘This war has buried old certainties and created new ones. Those seeking to fight an imperial aggressor like Putin cannot rely on de-escalation, as that will only lead to even more aggression. Instead, only credible deterrence can work. In addition, diplomacy and toughness are not mutually exclusive; they cross-fertilize each other. Warmongers like Putin only agree to offers of peace under extremely intense pressure.’

(…)

‘But Europe, whose economy and culture have been closely interwoven with Russia until now, has other interests. In the end, we will also need a reconstruction plan for Ukraine. But will we need one for Russia, too? Or will Europe have to try to force the country to its knees until Putin falls, with all the suffering that would entail for Russia's population?’

Read the article here.

The return of credible deterrence.

But credible deterrence didn’t bring the Soviet-Union to its knees, nor will it bring Russia to its knees. At best, it prevents the enemy from all too risky adventures.

A Wirtschaftswunder for Ukraine, and a Wirtschaftswunder for Russia.

Maybe China is willing to pay for it, Europe is not willing to do that and don’t count on the US for another Wirtschaftswunder.

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