On military academies – Pfeffer in Haaretz:

‘We may have to wait until after the Russia-Ukraine war is over – when hopefully the decision-making process in Ukraine’s armed forces general staff will be revealed – to know for certain to what extent the events of the last two weeks were planned in advance, or whether the Ukrainians simply exploited a fortunate operational opportunity. For now, though, it looks as if they may have pulled off the most brilliant strategic maneuver in the 200 days since the Russian invasion began – one that will be taught in military academies for years to come.
Most of the details have yet to be officially confirmed. However, initial reports and footage emerging online certainly indicate that the much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in the southeast Kherson region on August 29 was also a cover for another major attack – on the other end of the long front line – that began a week later in the northeast near Kharkiv.’

(…)

‘Reports from both sides indicate that the Russians started deploying units to the south as the battle began around Kherson, which created a number of vulnerable spots on the Izyum front. Videos coming from the area seem to show large quantities of tanks and other armored vehicles, as well as large ammunition dumps, abandoned by the fleeing Russian troops – escaping before the last route they still held to the east fell to the Ukrainians. In some cases, as with large numbers of T-80 tanks that seem to have been abandoned, these were some of the most capable Russian military units, not just ragtag separatist militias, that were retreating hastily.’

(…)

‘It was unclear until very recently whether it could muster sufficient fresh mobile forces to launch a major counteroffensive, let alone two simultaneous ones. On the other hand, it has proven that Russia, despite having concentrated its army after failing to capture Kyiv in the first stage of the war, has still been incapable of rebuilding its badly mauled battalion groups and mobilizing new ones.’

Read the article here.

It has been said before, but indeed this war will be studied for years in military academies. Till another one becomes more interesting.

And undoubtedly are the recent gains that Ukraine is making a morale boost for Ukraine and its army and another disaster for Russia. The people I spoke to appear to be underwhelmed compared to some of the Westerners on social media.

As have been noted before, the war achieved everything that Russia tried to avoid. Till now. It brought Ukraine close to EU and NATO membership, it unified the Ukrainian population against Russia. It unified the Ukrainian in favor of a not so popular president before the war started. It made Russia a pariah in the West.

All of this can change rapidly of course, but the question remains what kind of end game Putin had in head. Empires, and not only empires start wars without thinking about the end game. Remember Iraq.

Surprisingly is that except for the first two weeks of the war when there some fear of a nuclear war Putin appears to work hard to avoid escalation with the NATO. Within Russia most opposition is in prison, thrown out of windows or killed in other ways, but outside the borders, especially vis-à-vis NATO Putin behaves like a gentleman. At least less brutal than many people, including me, expected at the end of February.

Putin needs NATO, and NATO needs Putin. Both Putin and NATO prefer each other as enemy to China. (See also under: Hamas and Israel.)
That might explain something. And Putin rather has NATO in Ukraine, NATO is already there of course, than becoming China’s servant.

In any case, the prediction that the war will smother on for several years might still be true.