On records – Amos Harel in Haaretz:
‘What all these systems have in common, aside from a relatively high level of effectiveness, is that a lengthy training period is required to operate them. We’re not talking about anything like the Stinger missiles that the Americans supplied to the mujahideen in Afghanistan in the 1980s to counter Soviet aircraft. But the Ukrainians have more than enough time to learn: the Russians aren’t going anywhere – and additionally, the Ukrainian army has demonstrated impressive professionalism in its ability to integrate new means of combat.’
(…)
‘The Americans’ flexibility stems from the administration’s desire to help the Ukrainians repel the Russian forces. However, a broader crisis is looming in the background, which pertains to the entire defense industry in the West. The collapse of the Eastern Bloc in the 1990s and the rise of Islamic terrorism in the decades that followed led most European governments to reduce their expenditures on conventional military procurement (from tanks and artillery to anti-aircraft missiles) and to focus on counterterrorism efforts.
Now, both Russia and Ukraine are experiencing a tremendous erosion of the means of combat in their possession, while other European countries are observing the events in the eastern part of the continent and are seeking to step up their military procurement.
Along with the effort to equip the Ukrainians quickly, the United States and Europe are interested in the expansion and renewal of their own military production lines, in order to prepare for what is to come. This stems not only from Russia's invasion, but also from rising tensions between the U.S. and China.
The New York Times reported last week that some NATO countries are now seeking to enlarge and fortify their “bonsai armies” – forces considered too small to effectively protect states, meaning they are largely decorative, like their Japanese plant namesake. More ammunition is estimated to be fired in a day’s worth of fighting in Ukraine than in an entire month of combat during the war in Afghanistan. This new reality is, of course, beckoning to the Israeli defense industry, whose exports continue to break records every year.’
Read the article [here]( https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2022-12-16/ty-article/.premium/patriot-games-u-s-missiles-head-for-ukraine-and-pressure-on-israel-mounts/00000185-19e8-dfc4-aff7-fbf986d50000.
According to the latest estimates already 200,000 soldiers have been killed, 100,000 on each side. See here.
The assumption is that the war will drag on for a while. Putin cannot afford to lose, the appetite for negotiations in Ukraine is nil. Biden doesn’t want Putin to win obviously, but he is even more afraid of a disintegrating Russia.
Also read this sentence from the article by Harel: ‘More ammunition is estimated to be fired in a day’s worth of fighting in Ukraine than in an entire month of combat during the war in Afghanistan.’
And Afghanistan was a war, no nation building.
The bonsai armies will count on the US for more substantial protection – the ambition to build more than a bonsai army is merely theoretical. The arms industry will break records, every year, and the death and wounded will be underreported for the foreseeable time. There are more urgent things, first the holidays, then the inflation et cetera.