On Nagorno-Karabakh - Ann-Dorit Boy in Der Spiegel:

‘It looks as if Azerbaijan's autocrat Ilham Aliyev wants to drive the de facto state of Nagorno-Karabakh and its Armenian inhabitants from his country's territory for good. For more than a month, Aliyev has been blocking the Lachin corridor, the only road connecting the internationally unrecognized entity of Nagorno-Karabakh with neighboring Armenia.
At least 100,000 ethnic Armenian residents of Nagorno-Karabakh, which has called itself the "Republic of Artsakh" since 2017, rely on humanitarian aid shipments from the International Committee of the Red Cross. As recently as 2020, Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a second, bloody war over the region, with Baku making significant territorial gains. Vladimir Putin brokered a ceasefire agreement and deployed nearly 2,000 Russian peacekeepers.’

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‘In the South Caucasus, things are always more complicated than they seem at first glance, as Laurence Broers, one of the most knowledgeable experts on the region, well knows.’

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‘DER SPIEGEL: South Ossetia is a breakaway region of Georgia that is completely dependent on Russia. Moscow defended South Ossetia in a brief war against Georgia in 2008 and went on to permanently station soldiers there. South Ossetia's 30,000 residents hold Russian passports. Do you think it is possible that Putin is planning something similar in Nagorno-Karabakh?

Broers: The issue here is that Nagorno-Karabakh has lost its previous security patron – the Republic of Armenia – as a result of the defeat in the 2020 war. The only remaining security patron is Russia, and there have been indications of greater Russian influence, such as the introduction of Russian as a second official language at the beginning of 2021. Rising Russian influence is inevitable as no one else has any access to the territory. Azerbaijan’s unease with this situation reflects both the growing parallels with South Ossetia in particular, but also Baku’s frustration with how the war ended in 2020.’

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‘DER SPIEGEL: Now, though, with Putin weakened by his war against Ukraine, do you believe Aliyev will seek to take what he wants by force? Broers: Russia’s standing – and, in particular, the reputation of its security guarantees and power to deter violence – have been greatly diminished by the Ukraine war. That has given Azerbaijan an opportunity to challenge the Russian peace. Ultimately, regime security is the highest value in Azerbaijan, and Aliyev's strategy depends on what is best for the security of his regime. Two years on from the November ceasefire, we see that the primary benefits for Azerbaijan to compensate for the Russian deployment of peacekeepers – namely the transit route across Armenia – has not taken place. This may result in Baku feeling that it needs to scale up the pressure on Armenia, and that means there is every reason to expect more violence, more turmoil this year. I don't necessarily expect a full-scale interstate war, but escalations that fall short of war are a very likely outcome.’

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‘ Broers: Indeed, Azerbaijan has been promoting for some time the narrative that the Republic of Armenia is located on ancient Azerbaijani land, and this trend is accelerating. Just recently, Aliyev announced the opening of a research institute for Western Azerbaijan, and when he says Western Azerbaijan, he means the Republic of Armenia. We can see parallels between the Russian discourse about Ukraine as an artificial, fake nation, and the Azerbaijani discourse about Armenia, likewise claiming it has a fake history. This elevates the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict to an existential level, where it is the historical authenticity of the conflict parties that is at stake. That makes it extremely hard to talk about the kind of transactional trade-offs on which peace agreements are made.’

Read the article here.

After fake parliaments, fake news, fake democracy, it was only a matter of time before fake nations would come to the surface.

From the Middle-East to Eastern Europe, where historical authenticity is at stake, peace agreements will be postponed indefinitely.