Arnon Grunberg

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Tenor

On the return (or not) – Markus Becker, Markus Feldenkirchen, Marina Kormbaki, Veit Medick, Ralf Neukirch, Christian Reiermann, Jonas Schaible and Gerald Traufetter in Der Spiegel:

‘Over and over, he let the world know how he viewed the Germans: a nation of parasites who have taken "advantage of us for many years." He also saw the country as being unreliable, if not controlled outright by external forces. "Germany is totally controlled by Russia," he railed in July 2018. And later: "So, we're supposed to protect you against Russia and you pay billions of dollars to Russia.” Despite his penchant for preposterous rhetoric, Trump wasn't always wrong, sometimes even recognizing German hypocrisy or inconsistencies before the Germans did themselves. Still, Berlin was elated when Trump lost to his Democratic challenger Joe Biden in autumn 2020. The tenor in both Berlin and Brussels is that the trans-Atlantic relationship probably wouldn't have survived a second Trump term.’

(…)

‘Michael Link is the German government's coordinator for trans-Atlantic cooperation. If Trump were to be re-elected, it would make his job a lot tougher. "Trump would be a greater challenge for Germany, Europe and the world in a second term than he was in his first term," says the politician, who is a member of the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP). "He would probably govern in an even more unrestrained, unpredictable and defiant manner."

Preparations for the 2024 U.S. elections have already become a significant component of his job, and he is planning on traveling to the U.S. more often in the near future. "In the end, what counts are steady contacts in the executive and legislative branches of government," he says. "Individual senators can have a decisive influence on whether and how a bill is passed. If the going gets tough, they can be important allies."
Agnieszka Brugger, deputy head of the Green Party group in Germany parliament, also argues that preparations must be made for the possibility of Trump 2.0. She says the Europeans need to be more self-reliant and less vulnerable, regardless who is the current president of the U.S.’

(…)

‘The tone between Washington and the European Commission, the EU's executive, has unsurprisingly improved dramatically since President Joe Biden took office. But in terms of substance, little has changed. Like Trump, Biden is also pursuing an "America First" policy.
At first, it looked as though the situation might become less tense. Both sides basically suspended the punitive tariffs at the end of 2021. Officials also reached agreement in the dispute over subsidies for aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing, which had been simmering for years. There was also a great deal of euphoria when Biden made a big push to transform the U.S. economy at the end of last year. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is a huge subsidy program of over $370 billion for climate-friendly products ranging from electric cars to wind turbines. Upon closer examination, however, Germans and Europeans discovered that the IRA contains a strong protectionist component: The rules only allow domestic producers to benefit from the subsidies.
With billions in subsidies and low energy prices, the U.S. is in a position to lure companies away from the EU, especially in the field of important green technologies. Car companies could also migrate to the U.S. given the significantly lower cost of electricity. "In terms of security policy, the EU and U.S. are close, but on trade issue, Washington shows no willingness to make any concessions," says Bernd Lange of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), who is the chair of the European Parliament's Foreign Trade Committee. And if Trump were to return to the White House, Lange believes, he would "likely tighten the protectionist stance seen in his first term."’

(…)

‘ The Eastern European countries, above all Poland and the Baltic states, are opposed to a stronger military role for the EU. They want Europe to do more within NATO to bind the Americans more closely to the Continent. Macron, on the other hand, wants the EU to become an independent player on the global stage, also militarily. Berlin is somewhere in-between. These conflicts will erupt in full if Trump becomes president again.
A return of Trump to the White House would also be disastrous for Ukraine. In recent weeks, Trump has again revealed in several interviews his impassivity toward Russia's breach of international law and his lack of empathy toward the suffering of Ukrainians. He has claimed that if re-elected, he would end the war in Ukraine "within 24 hours." And if it were up to him, Russia would have been allowed to "take over" parts of Ukraine. They would be "very simple negotiations," Trump says, because he gets along very well with Vladimir Putin.’

(…)

‘Staff at Germany's embassy and consulates in the U.S. have been tasked by headquarters to identify all potentially relevant individuals. From this point on, anyone traveling to the U.S. with the Foreign Ministry or other government ministries is expected to meet with U.S. conservatives, even in destinations far away from Washington. In particular, Andreas Michaelis, who will take up his post as the new German ambassador in Washington this autumn, is reportedly establishing targeted contacts in the Trump camp in order to be prepared for the worst-case scenario. It is a lesson learned from Trump's first election as president. In 2016, the German government was counting on victory by Hillary Clinton and had not bothered to establish contacts within Trump's team until it was far too late. The idea is to prevent that from happening again.
Moreover, Baerbock's diplomats have identified issues with which the Germans might be able to find some common ground with Republicans. One example on this list is the promotion of electric cars. Since the emergence of Tesla CEO Elon Musk, this issue is no longer relegated exclusively to the realm of the leftist fringe.
Another issue is China. Under the auspices of the Foreign Ministry, Germany is currently developing a China strategy that, on balance, advocates adopting a greater distance from the People's Republic. There are few other issues over which the U.S. Republicans and Democrats are as united as on their tough stance toward China. Berlin's China strategy is being designed in a way to show the Americans that Germany can also be an ally in the Indo-Pacific realm. It is unclear, however, whether German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will ultimately support the Foreign Ministry's robust China stance.’

(…)

‘A President Trump could actually create some advantages for Scholz personally. Some on the chancellor's team recall Angela Merkel in this context: Internationally, she was only able to rise to the position of defender of the free world because there was someone in Washington who was seen as its destroyer. Scholz, according to the interpretation of those close to him, could also play himself off as Trump's foe if need be.’

Read the article here.

It has been said before but the war in Ukraine might be decided in the US in November 2024.
Even though if Trump wins, if he will be the Republican candidate that is, he might change mind on Ukraine, as he has changed his mind on many things before.
Also note that vis-à-vis the EU and Germany the tone has changed with Biden, the substance not so much.

It’s more realistic to build a ‘stronger’ Europe’ within the NATO than within the ‘EU’. The EU after all is a federal state in the making with an army in the US.

Sustainable? Maybe more so than we think. An open marriage with benefits for the two partners. For the time being that seems to be enough. A breakup appears to be undesirable, for the two partners.

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