On comparisons – Pfeffer:
‘It was barely minutes after the news began to filter through on Shabbat morning that hundreds of Hamas fighters had infiltrated Israel from Gaza, at multiple locations, and were wreaking havoc in communities across southern Israel that “Yom Kippur” started trending on social media. Soon everyone was using it and everyone knew exactly what it meant. “Yom Kippur” as in Israel’s greatest-ever military failure. “Yom Kippur” as byword for complacency and strategic blindness. “Yom Kippur” for national tragedy and trauma.’
(…)
‘Despite the many compelling similarities between the two wars of October, there is one fundamental distinction between them that can still make all the difference. Unlike the original Yom Kippur War, the war that began yesterday is not an existential one. In Hamas, Israel faces a formidable enemy in Gaza. If anyone doubted that, Hamas’ operation yesterday shattered all doubts.
But their devastating success does not change the basic military equation: it is not on par with Israel as a military adversary. It isn’t even in the same league.’
(…)
‘That is not the case in 2023, and it won’t be the case even if at some point Hezbollah also attacks from the north. Within hours, Hamas managed to do its worst to Israel but that is the furthest possible extent of its offensive fighting capability. It will be of no comfort to the families of the hundreds killed and those who were captured and spirited away into Gaza, but from this point onwards, the threat to Israel from Hamas is not growing.
Most crucially, as the last of Hamas’ fighters who infiltrated Israel are mopped up, Israel doesn’t have to rush into the next stage of the battle, as it did 50 years ago when ill-equipped tanks with makeshift reservist teams had to rush to hold up the front lines near the Suez Canal and on the Golan Heights. This time around, Israel is not in mortal danger and has a bit more time at its disposal. Crucial time, which if used correctly, can determine how this war, which began so disastrously, will end.
On a tactical level, the time can ensure that this time around, Israeli soldiers are not sent in to battle without the necessary kit, especially armored fighting vehicles with advanced missile-defense systems. The IDF has built up one of the largest armored formations in the region with these systems and no major ground offensive should go ahead without them.’
(…)
‘Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz now have the time to decide if it will help for the latter two to join his government. Is it a good idea? Yes, if there is a chance of sidelining the crazies in the cabinet and bringing in experienced and level-headed people in to the decision-making. No, if they will have no influence and just allow Netanyahu to try and deflect his massive responsibility for everything that has happened and put on a fake show of “unity.” But at least, unlike Golda, who Netanyahu will now join in infamy as a leader of Israel who allowed a terrible catastrophe to take place on his watch, he has the time to do the right thing now.’
Read the article here.
Not in the same league, yes, but the Taliban is not in the same league as the US Army and nevertheless they managed to kick that army of our Afghanistan, together with some other NATO-troops.
Israel is no Afghanistan, but there is a bit of hubris in this statement and hubris is always dangerous.
The last serious war (with Hezbollah in 2006) ended in a draw, some argued that Israel lost that war. Nevertheless, till now that border has been remarkably quiet. If that holds is the question.
As to Netanyahu doing the right thing, it might be too late for that, and the question is, what’s the right thing? An ground operation, given the devastation of the Hamas attack, appears to be unavoidable from the Israeli perspective, the scope of that ground operation is still unknown. Mr. Erlanger quoted Mark Heller, a senior researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, in his analysis: ‘But first, as Mr. Heller noted, comes the war. “And these things tend to get out of control,” he said.’
Then there is Hezbollah, it’s still very well possible that Hezbollah will attack Israel, or that Israel won’t wait and will attack Hezbollah, which will make the war even bloodier.
No existential threat? A bit more existential than 9/11 was for the US, then US retaliation gave us two wars, Afghanistan and Iraq, that achieved not much. (Yes after ten years Bin Laden was killed in Pakistan, we still have Gitmo, a disgrace). What they did achieve was an enormous reluctance to put US boots on the ground.
Again: these things tend to get out of control.
We just don’t know yet how far out of control and for how long.