On containment and revenge – Harel in Haaretz:
‘U.S. President Joe Biden paid a lightning visit to Israel Wednesday, 12 days into the war in the Gaza Strip. This unprecedented step was accompanied by a speech that will enter the history books.
Biden is still giving Israel a warm, secure, public embrace. Nevertheless, this embrace also reflects American concerns over the conduct of Israel’s leadership and the chances of it leading to a regional war. And it is accompanied by several demands.’
(…)
‘He reiterated his forceful warning to Iran and Hezbollah to stay out of the fighting, and it’s clear he told his hosts America has no objection to an Israeli ground operation in Gaza. Biden also promised an expansive package of security aid and pledged that the army will get all the ammunition it needs.
Listening to this elderly but impressive president, it’s impossible not to regret the lack of an Israeli leader similarly able to show humanity. (His host, Benjamin Netanyahu, was caught on camera holding back President Isaac Herzog so the prime minister could be photographed first with the guest on the airport tarmac.)’
(…)
‘Obama set a red line for Syria’s Assad regime in 2013, the use of chemical weapons against civilians, but didn’t uphold it. Trump declined to help the Saudis when their oil facilities were severely damaged by an Iranian attack. But Biden, as Obama’s vice president, didn’t support his president’s decision.
The current administration’s strategy emphasizes regional alliances. This is an opportunity to help and to try to revive the emerging alliances that have been damaged (the weakness Israel demonstrated may well exact a price in its relations with its friends in the region), while also demonstrating strength in its competition with China for global influence.’
(…)
‘Israel won’t interfere with humanitarian aid supplied to southern Gaza via Egypt as long as it is confined to food, water and medicine for the civilian population. Humanitarian aid via Israel will be allowed only after the Israeli hostages are returned. Israel is also demanding that Hamas let the Red Cross visit the hostages.
By insisting on a humanitarian corridor, Biden dictated new rules of the game to Israel. This stemmed from the situation on the northern front: Israel needs U.S. deterrence, first and foremost the presence of its aircraft carriers, so Iran and Lebanon won’t be tempted to join the fight.’
(…)
‘The French and British leaders will also visit in the coming days. Britain has sent warships to the region, while France sent threats to Iran and Lebanon about the financial damage they will suffer if they don’t stop Hezbollah’s escalation.’
(…)
‘The Palestinians immediately blamed Israel, and the Gazan Health Ministry, which Hamas controls, inflated the number of casualties on its orders. Over the course of the evening, the number of deaths jumped to around 500.
There were indeed many refugees in the parking lot seeking shelter from Israel’s airstrikes. But the Palestinian story was full of holes. Nevertheless, it took hours to convince the international media that this was a falsification, while most of the Arab media simply ignored the facts, though they were evident even from Al Jazeera’s footage.
The IDF disseminated images its cameras had captured of the launch, which was also captured by civilian cameras. The bomb crater was wrong for an airstrike and for the stated number of casualties. Moreover, Israel intercepted and released a phone conversation between two Hamas operatives confirming that Islamic Jihad’s rocket misfired and Israel had to be blamed.’
(…)
‘Twelve days have already passed since the surprise attack. Israel called up around 350,000 reservists and concentrated forces in both the north and the south, but they’re still waiting. This stems from the need to coordinate with the Americans, Biden’s visit and other constraints.
But there are also advantages to waiting. Units can be better trained and the target area can be “softened” with airstrikes ahead of the ground forces.
For external consumption, the politicians and the army are speaking in one voice about the need to send in troops and destroy Hamas. But in practice, there are differences in their rhetoric and their definition of the goals. There are also questions about how prepared the army is for large-scale maneuvers, given the threat posed by Hamas’ defensive array.’
(…)
‘In the background, there’s a lot of talk about the need to restore Israelis’ trust in the IDF, which was indeed badly damaged, and about this being the ultimate test, without which there is no way to restore deterrence against Iran, Hezbollah and all the other enemies and neighbors who saw Israel so badly surprised and damaged. Many vows of vengeance are also being heard from both the General Staff and combat units deployed around Gaza.’
(…)
‘Nevertheless, we need to understand the following: America understands that Israel must act forcefully against Hamas. At the same time, the Americans expect us to secure a military achievement, not to run amok. And while the time they allot the IDF may be long, it definitely isn’t unlimited.’
Read the article here.
Even war cannot stop the pettiness of certain people. Let’s start there.
Then: is American, English and French (financial) deterioration enough to prevent Hezbollah from entering the war? Mistakes are easily made, and whether Hezbollah and Israel will start an all-out war, depends also on what’s happening in Gaza.
Also, the IDF is now perceived as weak, both by the or at least by many Israelis as by the Americans and the regional players around Israel.
This is not the best position to operate from, see also this piece, only in Dutch.
Biden stated clearly that warships or no warships the US won’t fight along Israel with Hezbollah.
They are there I would say as last resort.
The longer the war will last the more the West will lose interest, see Ukraine.
I very much hope that reasonable ledaders will conclude that a frozen conflict is going to melt from time to time, but at the same time I think that all that’s possible is freezing the conflict again.