On spillovers – Ben Samuels in Haaretz:

‘Whatever timeline Biden may have had in mind is rapidly slipping away from him amid rising international outrage, as the focus of the Israel-Gaza conflict is now primarily centered around Gaza's humanitarian crisis and no longer the October 7 attack.’

(…)

‘The spillover effect has also caused a spike in antisemitism and Islamophobia, with both Jewish and Muslim communities feeling abandoned and isolated in ways unimaginable until last month.’

(…)

‘By Wednesday, just before Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's third visit to the Middle East this month, the call for humanitarian pauses was becoming official. “I think we need a pause. A pause means give time to get the prisoners out,” U.S. President Joe Biden said after a progressive Jewish rabbi interrupted his speech to demand a ceasefire.
Israel has been emphasizing its involvement in allowing humanitarian aid to enter the Gaza Strip in recent days, as reported by Haaretz, in an attempt to retain international support and legitimacy for its military operation against Hamas. On Thursday, for example, the Red Crescent reported 102 aid trucks entered from Egypt, though none of them contained fuel.
Biden’s direct pressure on Netanyahu to work on the aid came after behind-the-scenes pressure to restore communications to Gaza, sparked by urgent concerns over the weekend from the world’s most preeminent public health and human rights organizations who warned they were unable to connect with their partners on the ground.’

(…)

‘The evolution of the U.S. position on the humanitarian pause cannot be separated from Israel entering the “second stage of the war,” as Netanyahu put it last Saturday. U.S. officials have attempted to persuade Israel from launching a full-scale ground invasion, fearing a forever war defined by bloody urban combat, with no exit plan or postwar governing plan in place.
U.S. officials also wanted to ensure their regional military assets were fully in place across the region prior to Israel undertaking its next phase amid ever present fears of a second front opening and regional war erupting — whether provoked by further Israeli actions or adversaries sensing opportunity.
Nearly 2,000 U.S. soldiers are prepared to deploy in noncombat roles, while two aircraft carrier strike groups and a Marines assault ship are currently in the region. The U.S. is also deploying a THAAD antiballistic missile defense system and an unspecified number of Patriot missile battalions to unnamed locations across the Middle East.
Leading up to Israel’s ground operations last Friday, senior U.S. officials have operated in Biden’s image by “asking hard questions” to their Israeli counterparts concerning the possibility of a protracted, bloody war defined by urban combat, how to avoid mounting civilian casualties and what Gaza looks like following the war.
Since Israel’s escalation began, however, U.S. officials have subtly toned down their full-throated endorsements of blanket support for Israeli actions and taken a more stern public-facing approach.
The standard line emerging from U.S. officials now veers much closer to: “This is ultimately up to Israel. This is their military operation, they will make that decision. And we will continue to ask the hard questions.” The difference in past messaging is unmistakable.’

(…)

‘That nuance, however, is lost on a growing swath of the Democratic Party. Biden has faced an 11-point drop in popularity among Democrats in the past month alone, as activists continue to stage attention-grabbing protests, and growing numbers of progressive and Arab voters vow not to vote for him over his support of Israel.
This anger only increased in recent days when Biden and White House officials publicly dismissed the veracity of self-reported Palestinian death tolls, doubling down amid criticism that their skepticism was callous and insensitive.
The White House has since attempted to mend fences with the community, including having Biden meet personally with Muslim-American leaders last week. So far, though, with Israel’s military operation ratcheting up, Biden’s efforts are falling on deaf ears.’

(…)

‘U.S. officials, meanwhile, are growing increasingly concerned with the restive state of the West Bank, where unchecked Israeli settler violence against Palestinians has rapidly escalated since the October 7 Hamas attack and Israel’s military operation in Gaza.
Biden and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan were both very clear when discussing Israel’s responsibility to hold settlers accountable for attacks on Palestinian citizens.
“I continue to be alarmed about extremist settlers attacking Palestinians in the West Bank,” Biden said last week, accusing them of “pouring gasoline on fire.” Sullivan echoed Biden on Sunday, saying that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has “a responsibility to rein in the extremist settlers.” He added that “it is totally unacceptable to have extremist settler violence against innocent people in the West Bank. That is something that we will continue to press on.” Signs are heading toward Biden acknowledging the rapidly shrinking runway he has tried to provide Israel following the attack. The question now remains: what will come first — Biden’s acknowledgement of this, or the war spiraling out even further?’

Read the article here.

The red lines, unfortunately, are not dictated by Biden alone. Hezbollah is involved as well, and skirmishes on a border can lead to small mistakes with huge consequences, especially when the border is between Israel and Lebanon.

The problem of the settler violence is that some ministers in the Netanyahu government secretly and not so secretly support that violence.

Also, Biden faced an ‘11-point drop in popularity among Democrats in the past month alone’. November 2024 is far away, but let's imagine that Trump will beat Biden. That might be another spillover of the war.

And a big gain for Putin, who is supporting Hamas for good reasons.