On the comeback – Nate Cohn in NYT:

‘In a new set of New York Times/Siena College polls, Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden in five of the six battleground states likeliest to decide the presidency, as widespread discontent with the state of the country and growing doubts about his ability to perform his job as president threaten to unravel the diverse coalition that elected him in 2020.
Overall, Mr. Trump leads by 48 percent to 44 percent among registered voters across the six states, including leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — most likely more than enough to win the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Mr. Biden led in the sixth state, Wisconsin.’

(…)

‘The poll contains considerable evidence that it shouldn’t necessarily be daunting for Democrats to reassemble a coalition to defeat Mr. Trump, who remains every bit as unpopular as he was three years ago. But even if Mr. Trump remains eminently beatable, the poll also suggests it may nonetheless be quite challenging for Mr. Biden himself.
The survey finds that Mr. Biden enters his campaign as a badly weakened candidate, one running without the strengths on personal likability, temperament and character that were essential to his narrow victories in all six of these states in 2020. Long-festering vulnerabilities on his age, economic stewardship, and appeal to young, Black and Hispanic voters have grown severe enough to imperil his re-election chances.
On question after question, the public’s view of the president has plummeted over the course of his time in office. The deterioration in Mr. Biden’s standing is broad, spanning virtually every demographic group, yet it yields an especially deep blow to his electoral support among young, Black and Hispanic voters, with Mr. Trump obtaining previously unimaginable levels of support with them.’

(…)
‘Just as strikingly, Mr. Trump has cut Mr. Biden’s lead among nonwhite voters in half, not only with staggering gains among the younger part of that group but with more modest gains among older voters as well. Overall, Mr. Trump earns more than 20 percent support among Black voters, a tally that would be unprecedented in the post-Civil Rights Act era.’

(…)

‘Many familiar patterns in American politics would be blurred. Racial and generational polarization would fade. It would be the culmination of a decade-long realignment of the electorate along the lines of Mr. Trump’s conservative populism, all while dashing Democratic hopes of assembling a progressive majority around a new generation of young and nonwhite voters.’

Read the article here.

Let’s forget the possibility that despite everything Trump will make a comeback in ‘24.
Let’s focus on the catastrophes now, before talking about catastrophes of the future.
But these polls are among other things a fatal blow to all identity politics.

The non-whites and the young would be devoted liberals? Not so fast, paradise is not coming yet.

What they expect from Trump is not so clear, what is clear is that the discourse of the progressives and the liberals in the US fails to attract too many potential voters.

Forget Gaza, that is a minor detail in this context.

But it would be ironic that because of Biden’s support for Israel Trump would be re-elected in 2024. Trump as another spillover of Hamas.

Well both Trump and Hamas are very much liked by Putin.

I guess many Americans prefer Putin to Biden. I hate the word decadence, but in this case it’s almost accurate.