On a win – Alon Pinkas in Haaretz:

‘In terms of what would constitute a win, a case could be made that the imbalance between Israel and Hamas does not necessarily favor Israel strategically. For Israel, a win invariably means comprehensively destroying Hamas militarily – or at least inflicting degrading, irretrievable military damage.

A win would also entail politically debilitating Hamas and rendering the terror organization incapable of exerting power and governing in Gaza. Anything less than that would amount to a limited tactical achievement, not a strategic game-changer.
For Hamas, a win means staying on its feet. The grand objective is to fuel and sustain a permanent state of conflict, constantly disrupt the status quo, and fight and murder to live another day. Hamas is a vicious terror organization, a tyrannical political movement and an extremist, theocratic-nationalist ideology, so therefore a win means retaining residual military capabilities, sufficient political power and maintaining a level of legitimacy among the Palestinians.’

(…)

‘In an excellent and thought-provoking analysis, Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies points to two policies Israel needs to implement in the immediate and intermediate time frame in order to change the strategic trajectory: regain international legitimacy; and strengthen the Palestinian Authority.
The first involves heeding U.S. advice and increasing requests for humanitarian pauses and intermittent local cease-fires. There are also smart and creative ideas on how to deal with Gaza’s hospitals, amid growing criticism that Israel is not sparing them. Israel has rejected it all to this point, instead announcing that there will be no general cease-fire. The United States has also expressed opposition to the idea of a cease-fire that would leave Hamas in control in Gaza, but it is increasingly pressing Israel to consider humanitarian pauses.
The second, strengthening the PA, requires a dramatic shift in Israel’s political and strategic mind-set – one that may lead to a political process once a settlement in Gaza is extended to the West Bank.
The two are patently political and diplomatic courses, and therefore neither is possible as long as Israel is governed by the hubris of Benjamin “I am not responsible, no one warned me” Netanyahu and the band of messianic incompetent extremists he calls his government, and as long as the PA is inept, weak and unpopular.’

Read the article here.

The PA has been weakened by itself, corrupt and largely incompetent, keen to keep the privileges in Ramallah for the elites, and by several Israel governments.

I think it’s an illusion that the PA can govern Gaza thanks to the Israeli thanks. This is Karzai in Kabul all over again.

Also, even if Israel would disappear tomorrow Hamas won’t disappear, it will find new internal enemies, the same can be said about Hezbollah. The Palestinian problem is a problem but it’s by far not the only problem in the Middle East.

The interest of Israel is more or less the interest of US backed governments in the region, from Morocco to Egypt, from Jordan to Saudi-Arabia. All these countries fear the political Islam in their own backyard and for that reason would very much love Israel to eliminate Hamas completely.

I’m doubtful that this is going to happen.

The current leadership will be killed, sooner or later, but new leaders are waiting in the wings.