On an accident – Harel in Haaretz:

‘As the hours passed on Sunday, the embarrassment at the top of the Iranian regime grew. The helicopter in which President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and other officials were flying was lost in the north of the country, after the entourage returned from an official ceremony in Azerbaijan.
With the crash occurring in a mountainous area and in winter weather conditions, the rescue efforts encountered difficulties. On Monday morning, Iran officially announced the death of all the passengers aboard the helicopter.’

(…)

‘The Iranians have racked up many scientific, technological and military achievements, but in many ways their country remains backward. Infrastructure is not sophisticated and Iran has a long history of air accidents. The sanctions it has faced for years have left it no choice but to cannibalize American-made airplanes and helicopters purchased when the Shah still ruled for spare parts.’

(…)

‘It appears to be an accident due to a technical malfunction or human error by the pilots. The Western media dismissed the possibility of Israeli responsibility, and that was what officials are indicating.
It is hard to imagine a government, even in today's environment, risking such a move.

(…)

‘Raisi, according to recent reports in the British and American press, was one of the two leading contenders to succeed 85-year-old Khamenei. The other contender is the spiritual leader's son, Mojtaba. Karim Sadjadpour, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C., and a leading expert on Iran, wrote on Sunday, after contact with the helicopter was lost, that if Raisi has died, this will set off a succession crisis in Iran.
According to Sadjadpour, given the prevailing conspiratorial atmosphere in Iran, many will suspect that Raisi was done away with to make room for Khamenei junior. This will damage the legitimacy of the remaining successor, who is not popular as it is. This could lead to unrest, increasing the younger Khamenei's dependence on the Revolutionary Guard, in the hope of preventing riots around the country. Sadjadpour suspects such developments could accelerate the government's transition into a full-blown military regime, or even the regime's collapse.’

Read the article here.

No end to the war, just an accident, but more upheaval in Iran.

In the meantime Israel still has to produce a plan for postwar Gaza. Israel is not a theocracy (yet) but its self-inflicted wounds remain a slight mystery. A slight one.

Back in 2008 I interview military historian Martin van Creveld. Not a dove, by fair not.
He said: ‘The biggest problem in the Israeli army is anti-intellectualism. I once gave a lecture to the general staff. They behaved like children with a behavioral disorder. I fear it is a remnant of the Zionist dream. The Jews no longer wanted to read books. They finally wanted to do something real: fight.’

‘