On the last roll of the dice – The Economist:

‘Even as bombs fell on Beirut, though, the Israeli cabinet met to approve a ceasefire that would end its 14-month war against Hizbullah. The next few hours were tightly choreographed. Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, told Israelis about the deal in a televised speech. Then came an announcement from Joe Biden, the American president. The Lebanese cabinet was not expected to meet until the next morning, but its vote will be little more than a formality.’

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‘Both sides have good reason to end the war. It began last year, when Hizbullah started firing rockets at Israel in solidarity with Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that massacred more than 1,100 Israelis on October 7th. For almost a year Israel and Hizbullah kept the battle limited to back-and-forth bombardment near the border. In September, though, Israel expanded its air strikes across Lebanon, and in October it launched a ground invasion.’

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‘The Lebanese army is still weak. Five years into an economic crisis that bankrupted the Lebanese state, many soldiers moonlight as taxi drivers to supplement monthly salaries that are worth as little as $100. The army will need donations from Western and Arab backers to recruit and equip more troops. Even with financial help, it is unclear if Lebanese troops will be willing and able to confront Hizbullah.
Around 70,000 Israelis have been displaced from towns near the border for more than a year. Israel’s stated goal in the war was to make them feel safe enough to return home, and it is unclear if this agreement will do the job. Mayors of some northern towns have criticised the deal, saying they want stronger guarantees that Hizbullah will be kept away from the border.’

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‘Many Lebanese will be unable to return home. The World Bank estimates the war has caused $8.5bn in damage and economic losses, more than one-third of Lebanon’s gdp. Close to 1m people have been displaced and around 100,000 homes have been damaged. Entire villages in the south have been razed. The state cannot afford to do much reconstruction.
Yet for all the caveats, the ceasefire is a rare bit of good news. A regional war that seemed to be inexorably growing will now shrink. American officials used to say the way to end the crisis in Lebanon was to get a deal in Gaza. Now they hope the Lebanon deal will help solve Gaza instead. “One of the things that Hamas has sought from day one is to get others in on the fight,” said Antony Blinken, America’s secretary of state. “If it sees that the cavalry is not on the way, that may incentivise it to do what it needs to do to end this conflict.” Brett McGurk, a Middle East adviser to Mr Biden, travelled this week to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia’s capital, to make one more push for a broader regional agreement.’

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‘For more than a year, Hizbullah insisted it would not stop fighting Israel until Israel stopped fighting in Gaza. Israel has now broken the link between the two fronts. That will take some of the pressure off its overstretched army. By ending one war, Mr Netanyahu may make it easier to continue the other.’

Read the article here.

A rare bit of good news, and the reality check: this ceasefire will make it easier for Netanyahu to continue the war in Gaza. According to Haaretz the army is preparing to stay there till the end of 2025. Or maybe longer. As we know, some Israelis are dreaming of establishing settlements in Gaza once again.

Also, there are no signs that the slightly failed state of Lebanon will become stronger in the near future. Hizbullah, weakened but still strong, will remain a state in the state.

The perfect world is far away, but ceasefire is ceasefire.