On the deal – David Daoud and Ahmad Sharawi in Haaretz:

‘Master deal-maker Amos Hochstein has done it again, producing a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Lebanon ending the year-long war that Hezbollah sparked on October 8 last year.
But Hochstein, a senior Biden administration envoy, is more ambitious, promising a deal to "end this conflict once and for all." Unfortunately, this cease-fire will do nothing of the sort.’

(…)

‘Rather than disarm or restrain the group, successive Lebanese governments hid behind their country's "special circumstances" to avoid acting until international attention was inevitably diverted elsewhere. At times, Lebanon also actively hampered UNIFIL's ability to execute its mandate – which in any case didn't include acting directly against Hezbollah.
By 2023, the group was exponentially stronger than at Resolution 1701's adoption – its growth tacitly supported by Beirut and shielded from Israeli action by the international community's inexplicable protectiveness over Lebanon.
The current cease-fire agreement appears only as a cosmetically upgraded Resolution 1701 – whose "importance" the signatory parties must "recognize." Each element of the deal contains weaknesses seemingly remedied by reinforcing conditions – but upon closer inspection, they prove demonstrably fatal to its success.’

(…)

‘Plausibly then, Hezbollah may undertake a tactical and temporary withdrawal north of the Litani to allow the figurative storm to pass. After that, the cease-fire deal depends upon Lebanon to prevent the group from reestablishing a presence in the country's south, to dismantle its "unauthorized" infrastructure in the area and seal the country's borders against weapons transfers.
That was precisely the source of Resolution 1701's failure because it assumed that Lebanese inaction against Hezbollah was a matter of capabilities rather than its actual source: a lack of will.
After all, Hezbollah is not a marginal actor in Lebanese society. The group won 356,000 of 1.8 million votes cast in the May 2022 parliamentary election, the most of any party by 150,000 votes. Two separate 2024 polls – in January and September – found that upwards of 85 percent of Lebanese Shi'ites, Lebanon's fastest growing and likely largest demographic, support Hezbollah.’

(…)

‘But what American backing will precisely mean is nebulous because neither the cease-fire deal nor the side letter describe the committee's mechanism and whether the positions of the other participants can override such American backing. Here, France's inclusion – over Israeli objections – will likely prove problematic, as Paris has a demonstrated track record of providing cover for Lebanese inaction against Hezbollah.
Furthermore, neither the United States nor the rest of the international community are likely to approve extensive but necessary military action against Hezbollah in any way comparable to the past few months, even if the group attempts to rebuild its capabilities.’

(…)

‘That test could come soon. Hezbollah officials have suggested that the group is planning a massive public funeral for its fallen secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, and his successor Hashem Safieddine.
They already did a successful test run with a vigil at the location of Nasrallah's assassination. If multitudes turn out to the funeral, Hezbollah will have demonstrated its continued strength in Lebanon, sending a message to would-be opponents regarding the consequences of seeking to disarm or restrain the group.
But in whatever manner Hezbollah eventually proves that, it will have turned Hochstein's pact to end all war into a document that will guarantee the group's resurgence and bequeath yet another Israel-Hezbollah war to future generations.’

Read the article here.

Or: waiting for the next war to come.

On the other hand, between 2006 and 2023 not all but most things were quiet on the northern front.

Hezbollah is not going to disappear, it will remain a state within a state, and most of the leading figures in Lebanon are quite content with this.

A failed state enables the maximalization of corruption.