On days of battle – Amos Harel in Haaretz:

‘More than a month into the cease-fire that ostensibly ended the war in Gaza, Israel's regional situation resembles a web browser with all the tabs left open. Despite the arrangement that U.S. President Donald Trump imposed on Israel and Hamas, and despite Israel's clear military gains on other fronts, nothing has truly been resolved.
Israel's military successes haven't translated into binding political agreements. After launching and dropping an immense quantity of munitions across the region, most of its strategic problems remain unchanged. The erratic, contradiction-laden conduct of U.S. foreign policy, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political constraints, and his fear of being seen by the right wing as making concessions or showing weakness all hamper efforts to address the problems that are still simmering. Deep uncertainty and instability are evident everywhere, along with a considerable decline in Israel's influence over U.S. policy in the region.’

(…)

‘The immediate flash point is now in Lebanon, not Gaza. Until just a few months ago, Lebanon was viewed as an Israeli-American success story. In stark contrast to Hamas' October 7 attack on Israel's Gaza-border communities, on the northern front, it was Israel that seized the initiative, while Hezbollah completely misread Israel's intentions, leading to a significant military failure for the group.’

(…)

‘In response, Israel has escalated its air strikes. More than 350 Hezbollah members have been killed in these attacks since the cease-fire began at the end of November last year. The pace and scope of the strikes have increased in recent months. This week, in an unusual move, Israel also struck a Hamas target in southern Lebanon, in the Ein el-Hilweh refugee camp near Sidon, killing 14 Palestinians.
On the face of it, all signs indicate that another escalation is expected in the near future, from the Israeli side. IDF officials have already begun discussing the possibility of "days of battle" – a short period of focused clashes with Hezbollah aimed at reinvigorating enforcement efforts against the group.’

(…)

‘He has rather regularly relied on cultivating awareness of an external enemy ahead of elections: from Iran (always), to Hamas, the Palestinian Authority and even ISIS. In Gaza, and perhaps in Iran too, his hands are currently tied. The economic situation is rather forlorn, and Netanyahu is now considering advancing the deeply unpopular legislation that would exempt ultra-Orthodox men from military conscription.
Under such circumstances, maintaining a permanent security-related agenda heading into the elections is in his interest, even if it reminds voters that no military objective has yet been fully achieved. Netanyahu can still cast himself as the guardian of the nation who defeated Iran and Hamas (let's assume). There remains only one small matter left to resolve in Beirut, the prime minister will suggest, and who – he will argue – could be trusted to handle it if not him? If "days of battle" occur in Lebanon, it would indicate that Netanyahu has received a green light from Trump.’

(…)

‘Iran remains fully exposed to attack, given the damage sustained to its air defense systems. The country's severe water crisis, which has caused daily interruptions in supply for several hours, casts the regime in an embarrassing light to its citizens. Yet the decisive step that is required is an American one, and it has yet to be taken.
It involves reaching a new nuclear deal that would restore oversight over Iran's activities and maintain the regime a safe distance away from a bomb. Without such an agreement, long-term stability on the nuclear issue remains out of reach.’

Read the article here.

The days of battle are here again. Were there ever days without battle?

It would be a clear case of myopia to claim that just Bibi is the problem. The more problem is that there is no clear path to anything that resembles peace. Not in Lebanon, not in Iran, not in Gaza, not in Israel itself, not in the US, not in Europa.

They are all waiting for the next days of battle to come. Hoping that it won’t be that bad.

These things tend to get out of control, I wrote a few days after October 7, 2023. Things are still out of control; the end of the process is not there yet.