Forecasts

Presence

Zvi Bar’el in Haaretz: ‘[Mohammad-Bagher] Ghalibaf, 64, a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards' air force and national police chief, is keen to lead Iran from the military victory it claims it won to a political victory that will determine its regional and international standing after the war.’

And: ‘Contrary to Israel's hopeful forecasts, the Iranian regime didn't fall. It's stable and functioning and has become, in Trump's view, a legitimate partner for dialogue.’

About Hezbollah: ‘Hezbollah maintained its presence in the south, and as Haaretz's Yaniv Kubovich has reported, returned to almost full military operations, with an organized command hierarchy.’

And about Lebanon: ‘Iran equates Lebanon with the Strait of Hormuz.’

In short, neither the US nor Israel achieved any of the objectives of the war. At best maybe, deterrence is still believable, but at what cost?

Israel could have engaged in peace talks with Lebanon but was hesitant.

Trump might save the day. Or not.

(a sf 2102)

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